NBA games

DEN @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
105–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN28292226105
LAC25333221111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAC
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 42 25 7 8
Jamal Murray S 44 21 8 8
Aaron Gordon S 41 19 5 1
Russell Westbrook 35 14 10 6
Christian Braun S 40 14 3 1
Peyton Watson 11 7 2 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 24 5 3 0
DeAndre Jordan 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 47 28 6 8
Kawhi Leonard S 39 27 10 5
Norman Powell S 39 24 3 1
Ivica Zubac S 33 10 6 0
Derrick Jones Jr. 18 8 2 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 19 6 3 0
Nicolas Batum 34 6 5 6
Kris Dunn S 10 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Dunn · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Kris Dunn makes two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden LAC
13%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 Christian Braun DEN
11%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
7 Norman Powell LAC
10%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
9 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
37%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.5 11.7 9.7
2 James Harden LAC 25.4 6.1 9.9
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.1 6.8 5.2
4 Jamal Murray DEN 23.9 4.6 6.0
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 21.1 10.9 3.6
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.5 4.9 3.0
7 Norman Powell LAC 15.4 2.8 2.4
8 Christian Braun DEN 15.1 6.0 3.0
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 14.5 4.1 3.3
10 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 13.8 6.3 1.6
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.2 2.8 1.1
12 Kris Dunn LAC 8.1 3.0 1.9
13 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 8.0 2.5 2.7
14 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.0 3.1 1.1
15 Peyton Watson DEN 4.9 3.0 0.7
16 Amir Coffey LAC 4.9 1.2 0.8
17 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.2 1.3 1.2
18 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.1 1.7 0.7
19 Julian Strawther DEN 4.0 1.6 0.6
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.4 1.6 0.7
21 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.2 2.3 0.7
22 Dario Saric DEN 3.1 2.3 1.2
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.9 3.6 0.6
24 Patty Mills LAC 2.9 0.5 0.4
25 Vlatko Cancar DEN 2.7 2.0 1.0
26 Kobe Brown LAC 2.7 1.2 0.8
27 Ben Simmons LAC 2.5 2.0 1.3
28 Jordan Miller LAC 2.5 1.3 0.7
29 Cam Christie LAC 2.5 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.