NBA games

LAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
115–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC23362432115
DEN35323232131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DEN
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ivica Zubac S 37 27 5 1
Kawhi Leonard S 37 20 9 11
Bogdan Bogdanovic 23 18 3 5
Kris Dunn S 25 15 0 2
Norman Powell S 32 12 4 3
James Harden S 35 11 8 5
Derrick Jones Jr. 14 7 1 0
Kobe Brown 3 3 0 0
Jordan Miller 3 2 0 0
Cam Christie 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 40 43 5 7
Aaron Gordon S 37 23 4 2
Russell Westbrook 25 21 1 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 14 2 1
Nikola Jokic S 37 13 10 12
Christian Braun S 37 11 12 3
Zeke Nnaji 2 2 0 0
Hunter Tyson 2 2 0 0
Peyton Watson 8 2 2 1
Vlatko Cancar 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
15%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
4 Christian Braun DEN
10%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
6 James Harden LAC
10%
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
8 Norman Powell LAC
9%
9 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
18%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.2 12.2 10.6
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.8 6.3 4.2
3 James Harden LAC 24.1 5.8 9.7
4 Jamal Murray DEN 22.2 4.8 5.6
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 20.7 12.0 3.8
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 19.7 5.5 3.4
7 Christian Braun DEN 16.1 5.9 3.2
8 Norman Powell LAC 15.0 2.6 2.3
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.3 6.6 1.8
10 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.6 4.2 3.6
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.5 2.9 1.0
12 Kris Dunn LAC 7.5 3.3 1.7
13 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 6.9 2.5 2.5
14 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.5 2.8 0.9
15 Peyton Watson DEN 5.4 3.1 0.7
16 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.3 1.8 2.0
17 Amir Coffey LAC 4.8 1.2 0.8
18 Julian Strawther DEN 3.4 1.2 0.5
19 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.2 1.4 0.4
20 Patty Mills LAC 3.1 0.6 0.4
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.0 3.4 0.5
22 Dario Saric DEN 3.0 2.4 1.2
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.7 1.2 0.5
24 Ben Simmons LAC 2.4 2.3 1.6
25 Drew Eubanks LAC 2.3 1.9 0.4
26 Vlatko Cancar DEN 2.2 1.9 0.9
27 Kobe Brown LAC 1.6 0.8 0.5
28 Cam Christie LAC 1.6 0.9 0.4
29 Jordan Miller LAC 1.5 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.