NBA games

DEN @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
101–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN27233516101
LAC2226173499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAC
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 43 36 21 8
Christian Braun S 43 17 7 5
Michael Porter Jr. S 42 17 4 2
Aaron Gordon S 43 14 6 5
Jamal Murray S 42 13 7 7
Peyton Watson 13 2 2 0
DeAndre Jordan 5 2 0 0
Vlatko Cancar 2 0 0 0
Jalen Pickett 6 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 40 24 9 2
Norman Powell S 36 22 4 1
Ivica Zubac S 41 19 12 6
James Harden S 43 15 4 11
Bogdan Bogdanovic 19 7 4 2
Derrick Jones Jr. 15 4 1 1
Kris Dunn S 21 3 6 1
Nicolas Batum 19 3 3 1
Ben Simmons 7 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Christian Braun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Christian Braun makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
15%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
3 James Harden LAC
11%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
5 Christian Braun DEN
10%
6 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
7 Norman Powell LAC
9%
8 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
15%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.5 13.2 10.0
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.0 6.3 4.3
3 James Harden LAC 24.7 5.7 9.9
4 Jamal Murray DEN 22.5 4.5 5.7
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 21.3 12.2 3.9
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.8 5.3 3.4
7 Christian Braun DEN 15.6 5.7 3.0
8 Norman Powell LAC 15.4 2.7 2.1
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.8 7.1 2.0
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.7 3.2 1.0
11 Kris Dunn LAC 8.4 3.6 1.8
12 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 8.2 2.5 2.6
13 Jalen Pickett DEN 6.2 2.4 2.3
14 Peyton Watson DEN 6.0 3.5 0.9
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.8 2.9 0.9
16 Amir Coffey LAC 4.8 1.2 0.8
17 Julian Strawther DEN 4.4 1.7 0.7
18 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.1 1.8 0.6
19 Patty Mills LAC 4.0 1.0 0.6
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.7 1.7 0.7
21 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.3 2.4 0.6
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.2 3.6 0.5
23 Ben Simmons LAC 3.2 2.6 2.0
24 Dario Saric DEN 2.9 2.3 1.1
25 Jordan Miller LAC 2.5 1.4 0.6
26 Kobe Brown LAC 2.5 1.3 0.7
27 Cam Christie LAC 2.5 1.4 0.7
28 Vlatko Cancar DEN 1.4 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.