NBA games

DEN @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
83–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN2819231383
LAC35302527117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAC
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 23 13 13
Jamal Murray S 36 23 0 4
Aaron Gordon S 32 15 7 0
Christian Braun S 38 9 6 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 35 7 6 1
Russell Westbrook 9 3 1 1
Peyton Watson 18 2 2 0
Zeke Nnaji 5 1 1 0
DeAndre Jordan 5 0 1 0
Julian Strawther 11 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 35 21 11 6
Norman Powell S 29 20 1 3
James Harden S 34 20 6 9
Ivica Zubac S 33 19 9 1
Nicolas Batum 27 12 5 2
Derrick Jones Jr. 23 10 1 0
Kris Dunn S 22 6 8 0
Patty Mills 4 3 0 0
Drew Eubanks 4 3 0 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 10 2 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes two point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
16%
2 James Harden LAC
14%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
5 Christian Braun DEN
9%
6 Norman Powell LAC
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
8 Kawhi Leonard LAC
8%
9 Nikola Jokic DEN
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
15%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.0 12.9 10.6
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.8 6.1 4.1
3 James Harden LAC 24.9 5.6 9.5
4 Jamal Murray DEN 22.9 4.7 5.6
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 20.6 12.5 4.3
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.8 4.9 3.6
7 Christian Braun DEN 16.5 5.8 3.2
8 Russell Westbrook DEN 15.8 4.6 4.6
9 Norman Powell LAC 15.4 2.6 2.2
10 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.2 7.1 2.0
11 Kris Dunn LAC 8.1 3.1 1.9
12 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 7.9 2.4 2.3
13 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 7.4 3.0 1.1
14 Peyton Watson DEN 6.7 3.9 1.0
15 Jalen Pickett DEN 6.0 2.5 2.6
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.0 2.5 0.8
17 Amir Coffey LAC 4.7 1.2 0.8
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.8 5.1 0.9
19 Julian Strawther DEN 3.6 1.0 0.6
20 Dario Saric DEN 2.9 2.3 1.1
21 Ben Simmons LAC 2.8 2.7 1.8
22 Patty Mills LAC 2.7 0.4 0.4
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.5 1.2 0.4
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.3 1.2 0.4
25 Drew Eubanks LAC 2.0 1.7 0.3
26 Vlatko Cancar DEN 1.4 1.9 0.6
27 Jordan Miller LAC 1.3 0.7 0.4
28 Kobe Brown LAC 1.3 0.7 0.4
29 Cam Christie LAC 1.3 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.