NBA games

LAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
105–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC25302327105
DEN31212426102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DEN
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 39 39 3 5
James Harden S 39 18 3 7
Ivica Zubac S 40 16 12 4
Norman Powell S 33 13 0 3
Derrick Jones Jr. 19 6 2 0
Nicolas Batum 18 6 4 0
Kris Dunn S 29 5 6 2
Ben Simmons 8 2 1 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 15 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 43 26 11 10
Jamal Murray S 42 23 3 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 15 15 1
Russell Westbrook 23 14 4 1
Aaron Gordon S 38 14 6 1
Christian Braun S 34 5 6 2
Peyton Watson 14 3 4 1
Jalen Pickett 7 2 0 1
DeAndre Jordan 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 5-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
16%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
4 Christian Braun DEN
10%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
6 Norman Powell LAC
9%
7 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
8 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
9 James Harden LAC
8%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
27%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.5 10.8 10.3
2 James Harden LAC 25.4 6.0 9.4
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.9 6.6 4.1
4 Jamal Murray DEN 21.6 5.2 5.8
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 19.8 12.5 3.9
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 19.1 4.7 4.2
7 Christian Braun DEN 18.6 5.8 3.7
8 Norman Powell LAC 15.8 2.7 2.3
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.7 6.5 2.1
10 Russell Westbrook DEN 15.0 4.4 4.9
11 Peyton Watson DEN 9.6 4.3 1.0
12 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 9.2 2.8 2.4
13 Kris Dunn LAC 9.1 3.1 1.9
14 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.0 3.2 1.3
15 Jalen Pickett DEN 6.7 2.6 2.7
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.3 2.5 0.8
17 Amir Coffey LAC 4.9 1.3 0.7
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.3 5.7 1.1
19 Julian Strawther DEN 4.0 1.1 0.7
20 Ben Simmons LAC 3.5 3.4 1.9
21 Dario Saric DEN 3.1 2.3 1.2
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.0 1.3 0.4
23 Patty Mills LAC 2.7 0.4 0.3
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.7 1.4 0.5
25 Drew Eubanks LAC 2.1 1.7 0.3
26 Vlatko Cancar DEN 1.7 1.9 0.6
27 Jordan Miller LAC 1.4 0.7 0.3
28 Kobe Brown LAC 1.4 0.7 0.4
29 Cam Christie LAC 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.