NBA games

MIN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
103–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN31282222103
LAL2227311696

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rudy Gobert S 39 27 24 0
Julius Randle S 32 23 5 4
Anthony Edwards S 43 15 11 8
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 25 10 1 3
Donte DiVincenzo 32 9 4 5
Jaden McDaniels S 18 8 3 0
Mike Conley S 31 8 4 3
Naz Reid 21 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 28 7 9
Rui Hachimura S 39 23 4 0
LeBron James S 40 22 7 6
Austin Reaves S 41 12 5 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 29 7 4 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 19 2 7 3
Maxi Kleber 5 2 0 0
Gabe Vincent 26 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 15-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
2 LeBron James LAL
10%
3 Julius Randle MIN
10%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
7 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
8 Jaxson Hayes LAL
8%
9 Markieff Morris LAL
7%
10 Anthony Edwards MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
53%
Jumper
15%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 28.1 6.4 6.2
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.4 5.8 5.0
3 LeBron James LAL 25.4 6.2 6.1
4 Julius Randle MIN 19.6 6.1 4.8
5 Austin Reaves LAL 19.2 4.5 4.7
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.8 5.2 1.7
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.4 4.3 1.5
8 Naz Reid MIN 12.3 4.7 1.9
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.2 10.3 1.2
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.0 3.2 2.7
11 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.2 3.2 1.9
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.5 2.9 2.8
13 Mike Conley MIN 5.8 2.7 3.1
14 Maxi Kleber LAL 5.3 2.0 1.9
15 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.7 1.4 1.1
16 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.8 1.2 0.4
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.8 3.4 0.5
18 Jordan Goodwin LAL 3.7 2.8 1.3
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.3 4.0 0.7
20 Markieff Morris LAL 3.2 1.1 1.2
21 Joe Ingles MIN 2.8 1.2 1.4
22 Bronny James LAL 2.7 0.8 1.0
23 Josh Minott MIN 2.3 0.7 0.4
24 Luka Garza MIN 2.3 0.7 0.3
25 Shake Milton LAL 2.2 1.0 0.5
26 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.9 1.2 0.6
27 Alex Len LAL 1.9 2.1 0.5
28 Leonard Miller MIN 1.5 0.7 0.2
29 Jaylen Clark MIN 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.