NBA games

LAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
113–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL32263619113
MIN28332332116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MIN
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 46 38 1 2
LeBron James S 46 27 12 8
Rui Hachimura S 41 23 5 1
Austin Reaves S 35 17 7 4
Dorian Finney-Smith 41 6 8 6
Jaxson Hayes S 4 2 3 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 7 0 2 0
Jordan Goodwin 7 0 2 1
Gabe Vincent 13 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 44 43 9 6
Julius Randle S 43 25 7 3
Jaden McDaniels S 38 16 11 3
Naz Reid 20 12 4 2
Donte DiVincenzo 29 8 2 2
Rudy Gobert S 26 5 10 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 12 5 1 0
Mike Conley S 25 2 1 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. 3 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
10%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
6 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
7 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
8 Austin Reaves LAL
7%
9 Joe Ingles MIN
7%
10 Markieff Morris LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
38%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
13%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 27.9 6.8 6.4
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.8 5.8 5.1
3 LeBron James LAL 24.1 5.8 5.9
4 Julius Randle MIN 20.1 6.3 5.2
5 Austin Reaves LAL 19.9 4.5 4.4
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.6 10.4 1.4
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.7 5.0 1.7
8 Naz Reid MIN 11.7 4.5 1.8
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.6 4.1 1.5
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.0 3.5 2.8
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.9 3.5 3.5
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.9 3.1 1.7
13 Mike Conley MIN 6.9 2.8 4.1
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.9 1.8 1.2
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.7 1.7 0.5
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.3 3.6 0.5
17 Jordan Goodwin LAL 4.1 3.0 1.2
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.8 4.5 0.7
19 Bronny James LAL 3.5 1.2 1.2
20 Markieff Morris LAL 3.2 1.1 1.2
21 Shake Milton LAL 3.1 1.5 0.7
22 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.2 1.4
23 Alex Len LAL 2.8 2.5 0.7
24 Josh Minott MIN 2.3 0.8 0.4
25 Luka Garza MIN 2.3 0.7 0.4
26 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.6 0.8 0.4
27 Jaylen Clark MIN 1.6 0.9 0.4
28 Leonard Miller MIN 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.