NBA games

LAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
104–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL26322620104
MIN32223230116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MIN
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 41 38 10 4
Austin Reaves S 41 20 7 4
Luka Doncic S 40 17 7 8
Rui Hachimura S 38 8 4 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 29 8 1 2
Gabe Vincent 16 5 1 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 13 3 5 0
Jordan Goodwin 12 3 2 0
Jaxson Hayes S 9 2 1 0
Alex Len 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 38 30 5 1
Anthony Edwards S 42 29 8 8
Julius Randle S 41 22 5 4
Naz Reid 27 11 6 0
Donte DiVincenzo 31 10 5 4
Mike Conley S 21 9 3 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 14 4 3 2
Rudy Gobert S 25 1 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
2 Julius Randle MIN
10%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
6 LeBron James LAL
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
9 Joe Ingles MIN
6%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
55%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
11%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 28.9 6.7 6.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.1 5.8 4.8
3 LeBron James LAL 23.2 5.6 6.0
4 Austin Reaves LAL 20.7 4.5 4.8
5 Julius Randle MIN 20.3 6.6 5.4
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.9 11.0 1.5
7 Naz Reid MIN 11.7 4.7 2.0
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.1 3.9 1.4
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.5 5.2 1.6
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.4 3.5 3.6
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.8 3.0 2.9
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 9.0 3.5 1.7
13 Mike Conley MIN 7.2 2.8 3.7
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.2 1.9 1.2
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.2 4.0 0.6
16 Jordan Goodwin LAL 4.1 2.9 1.3
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.7 4.4 0.7
18 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.6 1.6 0.4
19 Shake Milton LAL 3.3 1.1 0.7
20 Markieff Morris LAL 3.2 1.1 1.2
21 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.2 1.4
22 Bronny James LAL 2.8 0.8 0.9
23 Josh Minott MIN 2.5 0.9 0.4
24 Luka Garza MIN 2.5 0.8 0.4
25 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.4 1.2 0.6
26 Alex Len LAL 1.8 2.2 0.4
27 Jaylen Clark MIN 1.8 1.0 0.4
28 Leonard Miller MIN 1.7 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.