NBA games

MIL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
118–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIL3017282815118
IND1328342816119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home IND
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 48 33 5 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 44 30 20 13
AJ Green S 46 19 4 1
Bobby Portis S 44 14 10 2
Kevin Porter Jr. S 47 11 3 7
Kyle Kuzma 13 5 5 0
Jericho Sims 11 4 5 0
Brook Lopez 8 2 0 0
Taurean Prince 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 42 26 5 9
Myles Turner S 43 21 9 0
Aaron Nesmith S 41 19 12 3
T.J. McConnell 17 18 3 3
Andrew Nembhard S 37 15 6 6
Pascal Siakam S 41 10 4 1
Bennedict Mathurin 16 5 2 1
Obi Toppin 11 5 1 1
Jarace Walker 11 0 2 0
Ben Sheppard 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
AJ Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:32 Q1
"AJ Green makes 28-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
20%
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND
12%
3 Aaron Nesmith IND
12%
4 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
5 Myles Turner IND
11%
6 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
8%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
10 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
83%
Jumper
2%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.9 13.5 9.0
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.3 4.7 9.6
3 Pascal Siakam IND 18.7 6.8 3.1
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 16.3 5.3 5.1
5 Myles Turner IND 15.5 5.3 1.8
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.4 3.8 2.1
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.6 4.7 1.5
8 Bobby Portis MIL 13.4 8.1 1.9
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 12.2 2.2 1.7
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.0 3.3 4.7
11 Kyle Kuzma MIL 11.3 2.9 1.6
12 Brook Lopez MIL 10.2 4.2 1.3
13 Obi Toppin IND 8.9 3.4 1.7
14 Ryan Rollins MIL 8.7 2.5 2.9
15 T.J. McConnell IND 8.4 3.1 4.0
16 AJ Green MIL 8.0 3.0 1.7
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.9 2.9 1.4
18 Jarace Walker IND 7.6 4.2 1.5
19 Taurean Prince MIL 6.5 2.5 1.7
20 Thomas Bryant IND 4.7 2.7 0.8
21 Tony Bradley IND 4.7 3.3 0.7
22 Ben Sheppard IND 4.6 2.2 1.2
23 Johnny Furphy IND 4.0 2.4 1.0
24 Jericho Sims MIL 3.5 4.5 0.7
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.2 1.8 0.7
26 Chris Livingston MIL 2.5 1.8 0.5
27 James Johnson IND 2.5 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.