NBA games

IND @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
129–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND30333828129
MIL24283219103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIL
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 30 23 5 3
Andrew Nembhard S 31 20 3 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 17 8 15
T.J. McConnell 22 15 3 6
Aaron Nesmith S 25 14 5 0
Obi Toppin 14 13 1 1
Pascal Siakam S 29 12 3 4
Jarace Walker 21 12 5 3
Ben Sheppard 22 3 3 1
Tony Bradley 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 34 28 15 6
Kevin Porter Jr. 33 23 5 6
Bobby Portis 25 14 3 1
AJ Green 24 9 1 3
Jericho Sims 14 6 3 1
Gary Trent Jr. S 32 6 0 1
Brook Lopez S 15 6 1 1
Ryan Rollins 9 5 0 1
Pat Connaughton 10 3 2 1
Kyle Kuzma S 16 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Nesmith · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Aaron Nesmith makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Aaron Nesmith IND
11%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
6 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
8%
9 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
10 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
89%
Jumper
2%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 32.5 13.2 8.6
2 Damian Lillard MIL 21.2 4.5 6.1
3 Pascal Siakam IND 18.4 6.5 3.2
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.2 4.7 9.8
5 Bobby Portis MIL 15.5 9.8 2.4
6 Myles Turner IND 15.1 5.1 1.7
7 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 15.1 4.8 4.9
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.3 4.7 1.5
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 12.5 3.3 1.8
10 Brook Lopez MIL 12.5 4.5 1.6
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 12.4 2.5 1.8
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.1 3.4 4.5
13 Ryan Rollins MIL 9.5 2.8 3.4
14 Obi Toppin IND 8.3 3.6 1.7
15 AJ Green MIL 8.1 3.1 1.7
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 8.0 2.7 1.4
17 Taurean Prince MIL 7.8 2.8 1.8
18 T.J. McConnell IND 7.6 3.2 4.1
19 Jarace Walker IND 6.9 4.4 1.4
20 Thomas Bryant IND 5.0 2.6 0.7
21 Tony Bradley IND 4.7 3.8 0.8
22 Ben Sheppard IND 4.3 2.5 1.3
23 Jericho Sims MIL 4.0 5.0 0.7
24 Johnny Furphy IND 3.9 2.3 1.0
25 James Johnson IND 2.3 1.2 0.6
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.1 1.2 0.5
27 Chris Livingston MIL 1.5 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.