NBA games

IND @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
101–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND26311826101
MIL26213931117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 31 28 5 2
Aaron Nesmith S 27 18 7 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 14 7 10
Obi Toppin 16 10 2 1
Bennedict Mathurin 14 9 3 0
Myles Turner S 24 6 3 2
Andrew Nembhard S 30 6 1 5
Ben Sheppard 15 5 2 0
Thomas Bryant 21 3 4 2
Jarace Walker 6 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 34 37 3 0
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 37 12 6
AJ Green 26 12 4 4
Bobby Portis 32 10 8 3
Kyle Kuzma S 21 9 3 2
Damian Lillard S 32 7 3 5
Jericho Sims 15 4 8 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 26 1 4 6
Brook Lopez S 15 0 2 2
Pat Connaughton 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Myles Turner makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
2 Aaron Nesmith IND
11%
3 Myles Turner IND
10%
4 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
10 Ryan Rollins MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
33%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 32.2 13.0 8.4
2 Damian Lillard MIL 22.3 4.4 6.0
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.5 4.5 9.7
4 Pascal Siakam IND 18.4 6.6 3.2
5 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 17.5 4.9 5.0
6 Bobby Portis MIL 16.0 10.2 2.3
7 Myles Turner IND 15.4 5.5 1.6
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.5 4.0 2.2
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.2 3.6 2.2
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.0 4.4 1.2
11 Brook Lopez MIL 12.8 4.5 1.7
12 Ryan Rollins MIL 11.3 3.2 3.7
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.0 2.3 1.5
14 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.8 3.8 4.5
15 Obi Toppin IND 8.6 3.7 1.5
16 Taurean Prince MIL 8.5 3.0 1.8
17 Jarace Walker IND 8.0 4.4 1.5
18 T.J. McConnell IND 7.9 3.0 3.9
19 AJ Green MIL 7.7 2.9 1.4
20 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.9 2.6 1.3
21 Thomas Bryant IND 5.0 2.8 0.6
22 Tony Bradley IND 3.5 3.0 0.4
23 Jericho Sims MIL 3.4 4.4 0.8
24 Ben Sheppard IND 3.3 2.3 1.0
25 Johnny Furphy IND 3.2 2.0 0.7
26 James Johnson IND 2.3 1.2 0.6
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.2 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.