NBA games

MIL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
115–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL30302728115
IND40283124123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home IND
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 40 34 18 7
Bobby Portis 32 28 12 1
Damian Lillard S 37 14 3 7
Kyle Kuzma S 31 12 3 1
Kevin Porter Jr. 15 9 1 3
Brook Lopez S 16 8 1 1
Taurean Prince S 19 6 0 4
Gary Trent Jr. 30 4 1 1
Jericho Sims 8 0 2 0
AJ Green 12 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 24 11 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 21 5 12
Andrew Nembhard S 34 17 3 6
Aaron Nesmith S 31 16 2 2
Myles Turner S 33 15 2 1
Bennedict Mathurin 17 14 1 1
Obi Toppin 21 7 3 1
T.J. McConnell 16 6 5 4
Jarace Walker 11 3 4 0
Thomas Bryant 8 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Nesmith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
10%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
10%
5 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
10 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
39%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.9 12.7 8.6
2 Damian Lillard MIL 22.7 4.8 6.0
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.4 4.2 10.7
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 16.8 4.9 4.7
5 Pascal Siakam IND 16.8 6.3 3.2
6 Myles Turner IND 15.8 6.2 1.7
7 Bobby Portis MIL 15.6 9.9 2.5
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.2 4.3 2.3
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.8 3.7 2.2
10 Brook Lopez MIL 12.8 4.8 1.9
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.2 4.7 1.2
12 Ryan Rollins MIL 11.4 3.2 3.8
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.1 2.3 1.5
14 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.3 3.7 4.7
15 Obi Toppin IND 9.0 3.9 1.9
16 Jarace Walker IND 8.5 4.4 1.9
17 T.J. McConnell IND 8.5 2.8 3.9
18 AJ Green MIL 8.2 3.1 1.6
19 Taurean Prince MIL 8.1 3.2 1.6
20 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.4 2.7 1.6
21 Thomas Bryant IND 5.4 2.7 0.7
22 Jericho Sims MIL 3.7 4.8 0.9
23 Johnny Furphy IND 3.7 2.2 1.0
24 Tony Bradley IND 3.6 3.2 0.4
25 Ben Sheppard IND 3.5 2.3 1.0
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.6 1.5 0.7
27 James Johnson IND 2.4 1.2 0.7
28 Chris Livingston MIL 2.1 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.