NBA games

NY @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
116–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY37223720116
DET23382428113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home DET
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 42 40 4 7
Mikal Bridges S 44 25 4 3
OG Anunoby S 44 22 5 1
Josh Hart S 35 13 10 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 10 15 2
Miles McBride 17 3 1 1
Cameron Payne 6 2 1 0
Mitchell Robinson 13 1 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 44 23 7 8
Jalen Duren S 39 21 6 3
Malik Beasley 24 20 2 2
Ausar Thompson S 23 17 6 1
Tobias Harris S 39 14 5 0
Dennis Schroder 30 9 4 9
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 33 7 5 1
Paul Reed 8 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 18-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
3 Tobias Harris DET
9%
4 OG Anunoby NY
8%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
6 Jalen Duren DET
8%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
8 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
9 Precious Achiuwa NY
7%
10 Ariel Hukporti NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
34%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.1 7.2 7.8
2 Jalen Brunson NY 27.0 3.4 7.0
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.3 10.6 2.3
4 OG Anunoby NY 18.2 4.9 2.4
5 Mikal Bridges NY 17.0 4.4 3.5
6 Tobias Harris DET 14.4 6.0 1.8
7 Josh Hart NY 13.1 8.4 5.8
8 Malik Beasley DET 12.7 2.4 1.4
9 Dennis Schroder DET 12.5 2.7 3.4
10 Jalen Duren DET 12.1 10.9 3.4
11 Ausar Thompson DET 11.9 6.2 1.9
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.8 2.3 1.5
13 Marcus Sasser DET 7.3 1.4 2.2
14 Miles McBride NY 7.2 2.0 2.0
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.8 4.6 0.8
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.8 6.3 0.9
17 Cameron Payne NY 5.6 1.3 1.7
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.5 4.4 1.3
19 Landry Shamet NY 5.2 1.2 0.6
20 Delon Wright NY 5.1 1.4 2.0
21 Paul Reed DET 4.0 3.6 0.8
22 Ronald Holland II DET 3.7 2.0 0.6
23 Tyler Kolek NY 3.3 1.1 3.8
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.2 2.5 0.7
25 Simone Fontecchio DET 3.2 1.4 0.5
26 Lindy Waters III DET 2.8 0.9 0.6
27 Bobi Klintman DET 1.4 0.5 0.4
28 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.