NBA games

DET @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
106–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET22272829106
NY23272429103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home NY
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 24 8 8
Ausar Thompson S 29 22 7 0
Tobias Harris S 43 17 8 2
Dennis Schroder 22 14 0 3
Malik Beasley 26 10 1 0
Jalen Duren S 33 9 14 6
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 34 8 5 2
Ronald Holland II 4 2 1 0
Paul Reed 11 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 39 19 8 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 17 11 1
Mikal Bridges S 38 17 6 2
Jalen Brunson S 36 16 3 7
Josh Hart S 36 15 7 6
Mitchell Robinson 23 13 11 0
Miles McBride 22 4 2 1
Cameron Payne 12 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
4 Tobias Harris DET
8%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
6 OG Anunoby NY
8%
7 Jalen Duren DET
7%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
7%
9 Precious Achiuwa NY
7%
10 Ariel Hukporti NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
27%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 29.6 7.7 8.1
2 Jalen Brunson NY 27.3 3.4 7.4
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.9 10.6 2.5
4 OG Anunoby NY 19.2 4.8 2.5
5 Mikal Bridges NY 16.6 4.2 3.7
6 Tobias Harris DET 14.0 5.5 1.9
7 Malik Beasley DET 13.2 2.6 1.5
8 Josh Hart NY 13.1 7.9 5.9
9 Dennis Schroder DET 12.5 3.0 3.7
10 Jalen Duren DET 12.4 10.9 3.1
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 11.0 2.2 1.5
12 Ausar Thompson DET 10.7 6.2 2.2
13 Miles McBride NY 8.2 2.1 2.4
14 Marcus Sasser DET 7.3 1.4 2.1
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.9 4.6 0.8
16 Landry Shamet NY 6.2 1.5 0.8
17 Cameron Payne NY 5.8 1.3 2.1
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.3 4.4 1.3
19 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.1 6.1 0.9
20 Delon Wright NY 5.1 1.5 2.0
21 Paul Reed DET 4.1 3.5 0.7
22 P.J. Tucker NY 4.1 2.1 0.5
23 Ronald Holland II DET 3.8 2.2 0.7
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.2 2.5 0.7
25 Tyler Kolek NY 3.2 1.1 3.8
26 Simone Fontecchio DET 3.1 1.4 0.4
27 Lindy Waters III DET 2.7 0.9 0.6
28 Bobi Klintman DET 1.4 0.5 0.4
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.