NBA games

NY @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
94–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY2921143094
DET1924282293

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home DET
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 32 5 11
Karl-Anthony Towns S 40 27 9 1
Josh Hart S 42 14 10 5
OG Anunoby S 39 8 2 0
Mikal Bridges S 44 8 6 1
Miles McBride 19 5 1 0
Mitchell Robinson 9 0 3 0
Landry Shamet 1 0 0 0
Cameron Payne 7 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 42 25 10 10
Tobias Harris S 35 18 8 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 37 14 2 1
Malik Beasley 26 13 5 1
Ausar Thompson S 22 8 4 0
Dennis Schroder 27 6 3 2
Jalen Duren S 38 6 17 4
Paul Reed 8 2 4 0
Ronald Holland II 6 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 8-foot jump bank shot (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
3 OG Anunoby NY
8%
4 Jalen Duren DET
8%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
7%
8 Precious Achiuwa NY
7%
9 Ariel Hukporti NY
6%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
32%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 29.8 7.0 8.5
2 Jalen Brunson NY 28.0 3.4 6.9
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.4 10.7 2.6
4 OG Anunoby NY 21.7 5.3 2.9
5 Mikal Bridges NY 17.4 4.0 4.1
6 Josh Hart NY 13.6 7.8 6.2
7 Malik Beasley DET 13.5 2.3 1.4
8 Tobias Harris DET 13.2 5.4 2.2
9 Jalen Duren DET 13.1 10.1 3.2
10 Dennis Schroder DET 12.9 3.0 4.4
11 Ausar Thompson DET 12.0 6.2 2.4
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 11.9 2.3 1.6
13 Miles McBride NY 9.1 2.4 3.1
14 Marcus Sasser DET 7.4 1.4 2.2
15 Landry Shamet NY 7.2 1.7 0.8
16 Precious Achiuwa NY 7.1 4.6 0.8
17 Cameron Payne NY 6.8 1.4 2.1
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.7 4.8 1.4
19 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.3 6.3 1.0
20 Delon Wright NY 5.2 1.5 2.0
21 Paul Reed DET 4.3 3.4 0.9
22 Ronald Holland II DET 4.3 2.3 0.8
23 P.J. Tucker NY 4.2 2.1 0.6
24 Tyler Kolek NY 3.4 1.1 3.9
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.3 2.6 0.8
26 Simone Fontecchio DET 3.2 1.4 0.5
27 Lindy Waters III DET 2.8 0.9 0.6
28 Bobi Klintman DET 1.4 0.5 0.4
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.