NBA games

NY @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
118–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY33332725118
DET27263033116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home DET
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 41 31 8 1
Jalen Brunson S 39 30 7 9
OG Anunoby S 43 22 2 0
Mikal Bridges S 39 20 7 3
Josh Hart S 41 6 11 9
Cameron Payne 9 4 0 0
Miles McBride 9 3 1 0
Mitchell Robinson 16 2 4 0
Landry Shamet 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 36 24 2 1
Cade Cunningham S 42 24 7 11
Dennis Schroder 30 18 5 2
Jalen Duren S 32 16 8 3
Malik Beasley 23 12 2 1
Ausar Thompson S 18 7 3 4
Ronald Holland II 12 6 2 0
Tobias Harris S 32 5 6 0
Paul Reed 16 4 8 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 OG Anunoby NY
9%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
5 Jalen Duren DET
7%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
7%
7 Tobias Harris DET
7%
8 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
7%
9 Precious Achiuwa NY
7%
10 Ariel Hukporti NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
51%
Jumper
19%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 29.8 6.7 7.8
2 Jalen Brunson NY 27.3 3.4 6.8
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.5 11.0 3.0
4 OG Anunoby NY 22.8 5.3 3.0
5 Mikal Bridges NY 18.0 3.7 4.7
6 Tobias Harris DET 14.5 5.5 2.4
7 Josh Hart NY 13.9 8.3 6.1
8 Malik Beasley DET 13.4 2.3 1.5
9 Dennis Schroder DET 13.2 3.1 5.2
10 Jalen Duren DET 12.8 10.2 2.9
11 Ausar Thompson DET 12.5 6.7 2.2
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 11.9 2.4 1.5
13 Miles McBride NY 9.6 2.6 3.2
14 Landry Shamet NY 8.5 2.0 1.0
15 Marcus Sasser DET 7.5 1.4 2.2
16 Cameron Payne NY 7.2 1.8 2.6
17 Precious Achiuwa NY 7.1 4.7 0.8
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.1 4.9 1.4
19 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.3 6.5 1.0
20 Delon Wright NY 5.2 1.5 2.1
21 Ronald Holland II DET 5.0 2.3 1.0
22 P.J. Tucker NY 4.2 2.2 0.6
23 Paul Reed DET 3.7 3.0 0.9
24 Tyler Kolek NY 3.4 1.2 4.0
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.3 2.7 0.8
26 Simone Fontecchio DET 3.2 1.3 0.5
27 Lindy Waters III DET 2.8 0.9 0.6
28 Bobi Klintman DET 1.5 0.5 0.4
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.