NBA games

DET @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
100–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET25302025100
NY1831182794

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home NY
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 42 33 12 3
Dennis Schroder 29 20 2 3
Tobias Harris S 43 15 13 1
Jalen Duren S 37 12 13 2
Malik Beasley 30 9 1 1
Paul Reed 11 6 1 0
Ausar Thompson S 21 5 5 0
Ronald Holland II 5 0 0 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 21 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 44 37 3 7
Mikal Bridges S 38 19 5 0
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 10 6 0
OG Anunoby S 42 10 5 2
Josh Hart S 40 10 7 5
Miles McBride 13 8 1 0
Cameron Payne 4 0 0 0
Mitchell Robinson 20 0 7 1
Landry Shamet 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
5 OG Anunoby NY
7%
6 Jalen Duren DET
7%
7 Precious Achiuwa NY
7%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
6%
9 Ariel Hukporti NY
6%
10 Tobias Harris DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
18%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.0 6.3 8.2
2 Jalen Brunson NY 27.5 3.5 6.9
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.3 11.6 4.2
4 OG Anunoby NY 23.7 5.4 3.2
5 Mikal Bridges NY 19.8 3.7 5.1
6 Malik Beasley DET 14.5 2.5 1.7
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 14.2 2.5 1.6
8 Josh Hart NY 13.9 8.0 6.3
9 Ausar Thompson DET 13.2 6.7 2.4
10 Tobias Harris DET 13.1 4.8 2.1
11 Jalen Duren DET 12.5 9.9 3.2
12 Dennis Schroder DET 11.9 3.1 5.1
13 Miles McBride NY 11.0 2.9 3.8
14 Landry Shamet NY 9.7 2.4 1.1
15 Cameron Payne NY 8.8 2.0 3.4
16 Marcus Sasser DET 7.8 1.5 2.1
17 Precious Achiuwa NY 7.5 5.1 0.9
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.7 5.2 1.6
19 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.1 6.8 1.1
20 Delon Wright NY 5.6 1.6 2.2
21 Ronald Holland II DET 5.4 2.7 1.1
22 P.J. Tucker NY 4.4 2.4 0.6
23 Tyler Kolek NY 3.6 1.3 4.1
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.4 2.7 0.8
25 Simone Fontecchio DET 3.3 1.4 0.4
26 Lindy Waters III DET 2.9 1.0 0.6
27 Paul Reed DET 2.7 2.8 0.6
28 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.6 0.8 0.4
29 Bobi Klintman DET 1.5 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.