NBA games

CLE @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
138–83
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE43293927138
MIA1716302083

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIA
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 25 22 0 5
De'Andre Hunter 21 19 1 1
Ty Jerome 21 18 3 5
Evan Mobley S 23 17 7 1
Jarrett Allen S 25 14 12 2
Javonte Green 12 11 3 0
Sam Merrill S 19 9 1 1
Jaylon Tyson 12 6 2 2
Isaac Okoro 13 6 1 0
Dean Wade 18 5 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jovic 29 24 5 2
Bam Adebayo S 32 13 12 4
Pelle Larsson 23 12 5 3
Andrew Wiggins S 22 12 5 1
Davion Mitchell S 35 8 0 5
Tyler Herro S 31 4 1 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 13 4 4 1
Keshad Johnson 7 2 1 0
Haywood Highsmith 11 2 4 0
Kel'el Ware S 15 2 7 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
7 Darius Garland CLE
8%
8 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
10 Alec Burks MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
45%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.7 5.2 5.0
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.0 5.7 6.1
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.5 9.5 4.5
4 Darius Garland CLE 20.3 3.4 7.3
5 Evan Mobley CLE 18.8 7.6 3.7
6 Ty Jerome CLE 17.9 3.0 4.9
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.8 4.9 4.0
8 Davion Mitchell MIA 15.8 3.4 6.3
9 De'Andre Hunter CLE 13.0 3.9 1.9
10 Max Strus CLE 11.5 4.0 4.0
11 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.3 7.7 1.8
12 Nikola Jovic MIA 9.7 3.5 2.5
13 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.6 6.9 1.4
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.5 4.0 1.7
15 Duncan Robinson MIA 7.8 1.9 1.3
16 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.4 2.8 1.1
17 Pelle Larsson MIA 7.2 2.8 2.1
18 Sam Merrill CLE 6.1 2.9 1.7
19 Kyle Anderson MIA 6.0 3.7 2.3
20 Alec Burks MIA 6.0 2.3 1.2
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.9 2.1 1.5
22 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 5.9 2.6 1.6
23 Dean Wade CLE 5.0 2.1 1.1
24 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.9 2.0 1.0
25 Chuma Okeke CLE 4.8 3.8 1.1
26 Terry Rozier MIA 3.9 2.0 1.3
27 Kevin Love MIA 3.6 3.0 0.6
28 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.8 4.5 0.6
29 Javonte Green CLE 2.7 2.0 0.6
30 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.1 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.