NBA games

CLE @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
124–87
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE33292636124
MIA2022222387

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIA
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 26 22 10 1
De'Andre Hunter 28 21 4 3
Evan Mobley S 32 19 6 3
Max Strus S 31 18 9 5
Donovan Mitchell S 30 13 2 1
Ty Jerome 22 13 3 11
Isaac Okoro 9 9 1 1
Jaylon Tyson 5 7 2 2
Javonte Green 5 2 1 1
Sam Merrill S 19 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 40 22 9 1
Davion Mitchell S 37 16 4 5
Tyler Herro S 37 13 4 3
Andrew Wiggins S 33 10 1 3
Kel'el Ware S 19 8 5 2
Duncan Robinson 18 6 0 0
Pelle Larsson 17 6 2 1
Haywood Highsmith 15 3 1 1
Nikola Jovic 19 3 3 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
7 Darius Garland CLE
8%
8 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Alec Burks MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
30%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 26.5 5.6 5.3
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.2 5.8 6.0
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.2 9.8 4.8
4 Darius Garland CLE 20.5 3.5 7.3
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.4 5.1 4.3
6 Evan Mobley CLE 19.1 8.1 3.6
7 Ty Jerome CLE 18.0 2.8 3.8
8 Davion Mitchell MIA 15.8 3.5 6.3
9 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.3 4.2 1.8
10 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.6 7.8 1.9
11 Nikola Jovic MIA 10.9 3.4 2.5
12 Max Strus CLE 10.4 3.5 3.7
13 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.2 8.0 1.3
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.2 4.1 1.8
15 Duncan Robinson MIA 7.9 2.1 1.3
16 Sam Merrill CLE 7.3 3.0 1.8
17 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.0 2.8 1.0
18 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.9 2.8 2.1
19 Alec Burks MIA 6.8 2.4 1.2
20 Kyle Anderson MIA 6.6 3.8 2.4
21 Chuma Okeke CLE 5.2 3.9 1.1
22 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 5.1 2.3 1.4
23 Dean Wade CLE 5.0 2.0 1.0
24 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.9 1.7 1.2
25 Terry Rozier MIA 4.2 2.0 1.3
26 Kevin Love MIA 3.8 3.0 0.7
27 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.5 1.4 0.6
28 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.4 1.2 0.3
29 Javonte Green CLE 2.1 1.8 0.3
30 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.7 3.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.