NBA games

MIA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
112–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA24272932112
CLE25432528121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CLE
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 40 33 6 5
Davion Mitchell S 36 18 1 6
Haywood Highsmith 27 17 2 1
Nikola Jovic 25 11 8 2
Bam Adebayo S 42 11 14 9
Andrew Wiggins S 28 10 1 3
Kel'el Ware S 19 7 4 0
Duncan Robinson 12 3 0 1
Pelle Larsson 11 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 30 6 6
Darius Garland S 32 21 2 9
Evan Mobley S 34 20 6 1
Max Strus S 26 14 1 6
De'Andre Hunter 23 12 3 0
Jarrett Allen S 31 9 8 1
Sam Merrill 20 6 4 1
Ty Jerome 23 6 3 0
Isaac Okoro 10 3 1 0
Dean Wade 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kel'el Ware · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Kel'el Ware makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
7 Darius Garland CLE
9%
8 Kel'el Ware MIA
9%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Alec Burks MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
49%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 26.8 5.0 5.1
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.3 5.8 6.0
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.7 9.3 4.6
4 Darius Garland CLE 21.8 3.7 7.4
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.1 5.0 4.0
6 Ty Jerome CLE 17.8 2.7 3.8
7 Evan Mobley CLE 17.5 8.9 3.5
8 Davion Mitchell MIA 14.9 3.5 6.4
9 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.1 4.2 1.8
10 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.3 7.6 1.8
11 Nikola Jovic MIA 11.0 3.4 2.6
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.3 8.1 1.2
13 Max Strus CLE 10.0 3.6 3.3
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.5 4.4 1.7
15 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.9 3.1 1.0
16 Sam Merrill CLE 7.8 2.7 1.9
17 Duncan Robinson MIA 7.5 2.2 1.3
18 Alec Burks MIA 7.2 2.6 1.5
19 Kyle Anderson MIA 6.9 4.2 2.5
20 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.4 2.6 2.0
21 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 5.6 2.5 1.6
22 Chuma Okeke CLE 5.5 4.1 1.3
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.5 2.0 1.4
24 Dean Wade CLE 5.1 2.3 1.0
25 Terry Rozier MIA 4.2 2.1 1.3
26 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.9 1.6 0.8
27 Kevin Love MIA 3.8 3.1 0.6
28 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.9 1.5 0.4
29 Javonte Green CLE 2.4 2.0 0.6
30 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.7 3.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.