NBA games

ORL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
89–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2722132789
BOS23243637120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home BOS
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 40 25 4 4
Paolo Banchero S 30 19 9 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 34 12 10 1
Anthony Black 21 8 8 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 30 8 3 1
Jett Howard 4 6 0 0
Jonathan Isaac 14 5 1 1
Cole Anthony 19 3 3 1
Gary Harris 15 3 1 1
Cory Joseph S 20 0 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 34 35 8 10
Jaylen Brown S 32 23 6 3
Payton Pritchard 25 10 3 1
Sam Hauser 20 10 2 0
Al Horford S 34 9 6 4
Luke Kornet 23 9 4 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 21 9 2 1
Derrick White S 31 5 4 5
Neemias Queta 4 4 0 1
Baylor Scheierman 4 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 14-foot two point shot (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
15%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
6 Derrick White BOS
8%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Al Horford BOS
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Baylor Scheierman BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
37%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
27%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 26.5 8.8 4.9
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.6 9.0 5.8
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.6 5.9 5.2
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.6 5.7 3.6
5 Derrick White BOS 18.3 5.3 6.0
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 16.7 5.8 2.2
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.8 3.3 3.6
8 Al Horford BOS 11.2 7.0 2.0
9 Anthony Black ORL 10.7 4.3 1.9
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.6 7.4 1.5
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 7.8 2.7 1.7
12 Sam Hauser BOS 7.3 2.9 0.9
13 Luke Kornet BOS 6.5 4.4 1.0
14 Cory Joseph ORL 6.4 2.0 2.1
15 Cole Anthony ORL 6.2 2.1 2.0
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.0 4.1 0.9
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.8 2.4 0.9
18 Gary Harris ORL 4.3 1.3 0.7
19 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.0 2.2 1.1
20 Tristan da Silva ORL 3.7 1.7 0.7
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.3 3.3 1.1
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.1 0.7 0.4
23 Neemias Queta BOS 2.7 2.4 0.7
24 JD Davison BOS 2.0 0.7 0.8
25 Torrey Craig BOS 1.8 2.5 0.6
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.2 1.0 0.3
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.0 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.