NBA games

BOS @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
107–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS32212628107
ORL2919272398

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home ORL
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 42 37 14 3
Jaylen Brown S 41 21 11 1
Kristaps Porzingis S 22 19 5 1
Derrick White S 39 18 7 7
Al Horford S 35 6 6 2
Sam Hauser 18 6 1 0
Luke Kornet 16 0 1 1
Payton Pritchard 26 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 40 31 7 3
Franz Wagner S 40 24 6 7
Cory Joseph S 27 12 3 6
Anthony Black 18 10 4 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 36 9 11 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 32 8 2 4
Jonathan Isaac 13 4 3 0
Caleb Houstan 13 0 1 0
Cole Anthony 2 0 0 0
Gary Harris 18 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 19-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
15%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
7 Al Horford BOS
7%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Baylor Scheierman BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
53%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.1 8.7 5.5
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.4 8.5 6.0
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.3 5.8 5.0
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 20.3 4.8 3.4
5 Derrick White BOS 17.7 5.3 5.6
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 16.5 6.1 2.1
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.3 3.5 3.6
8 Al Horford BOS 11.0 7.1 1.9
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.8 6.8 1.6
10 Anthony Black ORL 10.1 4.3 2.1
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 8.1 2.8 1.7
12 Cole Anthony ORL 7.6 2.4 2.4
13 Luke Kornet BOS 7.5 4.8 1.1
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.2 3.1 0.8
15 Cory Joseph ORL 6.2 2.2 2.0
16 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.8 2.6 1.3
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.3 4.1 1.0
18 Gary Harris ORL 4.5 1.3 0.7
19 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.0 2.2 1.1
20 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.0 1.8 0.8
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.5 3.5 1.2
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.2 0.7 0.5
23 Neemias Queta BOS 2.6 2.4 0.6
24 JD Davison BOS 2.1 0.7 0.7
25 Torrey Craig BOS 1.9 2.6 0.6
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.2 1.1 0.2
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 0.9 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.