NBA games

BOS @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
93–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS2732112393
ORL3118242295

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home ORL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 39 36 9 4
Jaylen Brown S 34 19 6 1
Derrick White S 40 16 3 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 34 7 6 1
Luke Kornet 19 6 6 0
Al Horford S 34 6 7 3
Payton Pritchard 26 3 1 0
Sam Hauser 13 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 38 32 7 8
Paolo Banchero S 42 29 6 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 10 12 1
Anthony Black 13 9 2 0
Cory Joseph S 28 6 3 1
Cole Anthony 14 4 4 2
Caleb Houstan 3 3 1 0
Jonathan Isaac 17 2 3 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 32 0 2 2
Gary Harris 22 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
16%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
7 Al Horford BOS
6%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
6%
9 Derrick White BOS
6%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
47%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.6 9.3 5.7
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.6 8.3 6.0
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.0 6.0 4.6
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 18.3 4.7 3.5
5 Derrick White BOS 18.2 5.4 5.9
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.6 6.3 2.4
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.0 3.8 3.8
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.4 3.8 4.0
9 Al Horford BOS 11.0 6.9 2.3
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.9 6.0 1.5
11 Anthony Black ORL 10.5 4.2 2.4
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 8.6 2.9 1.7
13 Luke Kornet BOS 8.4 5.8 1.3
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.7 3.1 1.0
15 Cole Anthony ORL 7.1 2.3 2.1
16 Cory Joseph ORL 6.3 2.4 2.3
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.9 2.7 1.3
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.2 4.0 1.0
19 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.4 1.9 0.8
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.4 3.8 1.4
21 Gary Harris ORL 4.2 1.3 0.7
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.0 2.2 1.1
23 Jett Howard ORL 3.2 0.8 0.5
24 Neemias Queta BOS 2.7 2.4 0.6
25 JD Davison BOS 2.4 0.8 0.7
26 Torrey Craig BOS 2.2 2.7 0.6
27 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.5 1.1 0.3
28 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.0 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.