NBA games

ORL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
100–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL21262429100
BOS23273128109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home BOS
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 43 32 9 7
Franz Wagner S 40 25 4 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 33 16 8 1
Anthony Black 23 11 4 0
Cory Joseph S 23 7 1 3
Gary Harris 13 4 0 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 3 4 0
Goga Bitadze 8 2 3 1
Caleb Houstan 11 0 0 0
Cole Anthony 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 42 36 10 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 34 20 10 0
Derrick White S 38 17 6 5
Payton Pritchard 33 14 3 0
Jrue Holiday S 36 11 4 6
Al Horford S 32 9 10 1
Luke Kornet 12 2 2 0
Sam Hauser 13 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
17%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
8 Baylor Scheierman BOS
6%
9 Derrick White BOS
6%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
38%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.8 8.8 5.5
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.7 8.3 6.2
3 Franz Wagner ORL 22.9 6.4 4.6
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.5 6.6 3.0
5 Jaylen Brown BOS 16.6 4.5 2.9
6 Derrick White BOS 16.5 5.3 5.9
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.6 4.0 4.2
8 Al Horford BOS 11.2 6.7 2.6
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.2 3.5 3.6
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.5 6.0 1.4
11 Anthony Black ORL 10.1 4.2 2.6
12 Luke Kornet BOS 8.5 6.1 1.3
13 Sam Hauser BOS 8.4 3.3 1.1
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 8.1 2.8 1.7
15 Cole Anthony ORL 7.4 2.5 2.2
16 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.1 2.9 1.4
17 Cory Joseph ORL 5.7 2.3 2.0
18 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.8 2.2 1.0
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.6 4.2 1.0
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.1 3.9 1.4
21 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.1 2.2 1.1
22 Gary Harris ORL 3.5 1.1 0.6
23 Jett Howard ORL 3.3 0.9 0.5
24 JD Davison BOS 2.8 1.0 1.0
25 Torrey Craig BOS 2.7 2.9 0.8
26 Neemias Queta BOS 2.7 2.4 0.7
27 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.9 1.4 0.5
28 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.0 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.