NBA games

MIN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
85–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN1528222085
LAL3424231394

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 39 27 4 6
Anthony Edwards S 40 25 6 0
Naz Reid 21 9 2 1
Jaden McDaniels S 38 8 4 1
Rudy Gobert S 29 6 6 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 29 4 2 3
Donte DiVincenzo 16 4 3 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. 7 2 1 0
Mike Conley S 21 0 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 42 31 12 9
LeBron James S 40 21 11 7
Austin Reaves S 43 16 5 5
Rui Hachimura S 34 11 5 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 39 7 5 1
Gabe Vincent 19 6 0 1
Jaxson Hayes S 9 2 1 0
Jordan Goodwin 7 0 1 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 14-foot two point shot (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
13%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
10%
4 Julius Randle MIN
10%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
7%
7 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
8 Mike Conley MIN
7%
9 Markieff Morris LAL
7%
10 Joe Ingles MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
23%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 29.2 6.6 6.8
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.2 5.6 5.2
3 LeBron James LAL 23.5 5.0 6.5
4 Austin Reaves LAL 21.8 4.3 4.8
5 Julius Randle MIN 20.5 6.7 5.6
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 16.8 11.7 1.7
7 Naz Reid MIN 12.5 4.7 2.3
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.1 3.6 3.3
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.0 5.2 1.6
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.7 3.6 3.7
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.7 3.7 1.2
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.6 3.2 1.7
13 Mike Conley MIN 8.4 2.7 4.3
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.1 1.7 1.1
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.0 4.5 0.7
16 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.4 1.8 0.6
17 Shake Milton LAL 4.0 1.4 0.9
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.8 4.4 0.8
19 Jordan Goodwin LAL 3.8 2.8 1.3
20 Markieff Morris LAL 3.4 1.1 1.2
21 Bronny James LAL 3.4 1.0 1.2
22 Josh Minott MIN 3.1 1.1 0.7
23 Luka Garza MIN 3.1 1.1 0.6
24 Joe Ingles MIN 3.0 1.2 1.5
25 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.4 1.3 0.6
26 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.3 1.0 0.7
27 Leonard Miller MIN 2.3 1.2 0.5
28 Alex Len LAL 2.3 2.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.