NBA games

GS @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
103–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS23281933103
HOU1920232789

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home HOU
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield S 37 33 3 3
Stephen Curry S 46 22 10 7
Jimmy Butler III S 45 20 8 7
Draymond Green S 40 16 6 5
Brandin Podziemski S 40 9 3 2
Kevon Looney 11 3 4 0
Moses Moody 11 0 3 0
Quinten Post 3 0 0 0
Jonathan Kuminga 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 37 24 9 3
Alperen Sengun S 40 21 14 5
Fred VanVleet S 44 17 7 3
Dillon Brooks S 36 8 2 1
Jalen Green S 30 8 4 1
Tari Eason 16 5 5 1
Steven Adams 26 3 7 0
Jabari Smith Jr. 12 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 3-foot layup (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
12%
4 Dillon Brooks HOU
11%
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
7 Draymond Green GS
7%
8 Gary Payton II GS
7%
9 Jalen Green HOU
7%
10 Buddy Hield GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
35%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 23.9 5.6 5.6
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.8 4.9 5.4
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.9 10.7 5.3
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.0 3.2 4.7
5 Amen Thompson HOU 15.5 6.7 4.2
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.7 3.5 1.6
7 Jalen Green HOU 13.0 4.3 3.3
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.1 4.3 3.3
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 10.5 6.7 1.4
10 Moses Moody GS 10.0 3.3 1.5
11 Draymond Green GS 9.2 5.8 4.4
12 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.6 3.6 1.5
13 Tari Eason HOU 8.3 4.4 1.4
14 Buddy Hield GS 7.8 2.7 1.2
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.8 2.2 1.1
16 Gary Payton II GS 6.8 2.7 1.6
17 Quinten Post GS 6.2 3.0 1.3
18 Jock Landale HOU 6.2 3.3 0.9
19 Steven Adams HOU 6.1 7.0 0.8
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.8 1.6 1.5
21 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.3 1.9 2.1
22 Pat Spencer GS 4.8 1.4 1.3
23 Jeff Green HOU 4.5 1.7 0.9
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.7 2.4 0.6
25 Gui Santos GS 3.7 1.8 0.9
26 Kevin Knox II GS 3.7 1.4 0.6
27 Nate Williams HOU 3.4 1.3 0.6
28 Kevon Looney GS 3.0 2.8 0.9
29 Braxton Key GS 2.8 1.8 0.5
30 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.6 1.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.