NBA games

HOU @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
115–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU25283329115
GS21273623107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home GS
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 40 29 8 8
Alperen Sengun S 37 21 14 6
Steven Adams 31 17 5 0
Amen Thompson S 36 14 7 2
Jalen Green S 32 12 5 3
Jabari Smith Jr. 19 8 3 1
Tari Eason 16 8 2 1
Aaron Holiday 6 3 1 0
Dillon Brooks S 19 3 1 2
Nate Williams 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 42 29 7 2
Jimmy Butler III S 42 27 9 8
Moses Moody 22 13 2 1
Brandin Podziemski 29 10 7 3
Draymond Green S 37 8 5 7
Pat Spencer 2 6 1 1
Quinten Post 18 5 1 2
Gary Payton II S 20 5 3 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 2 2 2 0
Gui Santos 2 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 3-foot dunk (Jalen Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
3 Stephen Curry GS
10%
4 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
5 Jimmy Butler III GS
9%
6 Jalen Green HOU
9%
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
8 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
9 Buddy Hield GS
7%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
33%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.0 5.7 6.1
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 21.5 4.6 5.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.1 10.4 5.2
4 Amen Thompson HOU 15.7 6.4 4.4
5 Jalen Green HOU 15.1 4.2 3.5
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.9 3.5 1.4
7 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.3 2.7 4.5
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.3 4.2 3.4
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 10.8 7.2 1.3
10 Moses Moody GS 9.5 3.4 1.5
11 Draymond Green GS 8.9 5.6 4.1
12 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.9 3.6 1.6
13 Tari Eason HOU 8.8 5.1 1.4
14 Buddy Hield GS 8.4 2.7 1.2
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.6 2.1 1.0
16 Jock Landale HOU 6.8 3.5 1.0
17 Gary Payton II GS 6.1 2.3 1.6
18 Quinten Post GS 6.1 3.2 1.1
19 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.4 2.1 2.2
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.3 1.4 1.5
21 Steven Adams HOU 5.1 6.6 0.7
22 Pat Spencer GS 4.3 1.3 1.2
23 Jeff Green HOU 4.1 1.8 0.9
24 Kevin Knox II GS 3.7 1.6 0.7
25 Gui Santos GS 3.5 2.0 1.0
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.4 2.2 0.7
27 Kevon Looney GS 3.2 2.9 1.0
28 Nate Williams HOU 3.1 1.2 0.5
29 Braxton Key GS 2.9 2.1 0.6
30 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.4 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.