NBA games

GS @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
116–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS24253136116
HOU40363124131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home HOU
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moses Moody 26 25 9 2
Kevin Knox II 18 14 4 2
Stephen Curry S 23 13 3 7
Pat Spencer 14 11 4 2
Jimmy Butler III S 25 8 5 2
Gary Payton II 11 8 1 2
Brandin Podziemski S 21 8 2 4
Draymond Green S 18 7 1 1
Gui Santos 18 7 2 2
Quinten Post 14 5 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 33 26 1 2
Amen Thompson S 35 25 6 3
Dillon Brooks S 29 24 1 2
Alperen Sengun S 31 15 9 9
Jalen Green S 28 11 8 2
Aaron Holiday 16 9 0 2
Tari Eason 19 9 5 1
Jabari Smith Jr. 15 7 2 0
Jeff Green 2 3 0 0
Jock Landale 5 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Draymond Green makes layup (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Stephen Curry GS
11%
3 Dillon Brooks HOU
11%
4 Jalen Green HOU
11%
5 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
7%
8 Jimmy Butler III GS
7%
9 Buddy Hield GS
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
31%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.3 5.5 6.0
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.2 4.3 5.3
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.4 10.6 5.0
4 Jalen Green HOU 16.3 4.1 3.7
5 Amen Thompson HOU 14.1 7.0 4.8
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.3 4.6 3.6
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.7 3.7 1.5
8 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.3 2.7 4.8
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.9 8.2 1.4
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS 9.3 3.8 1.8
11 Tari Eason HOU 9.2 5.1 1.5
12 Buddy Hield GS 8.8 2.6 1.3
13 Draymond Green GS 8.7 5.6 4.4
14 Moses Moody GS 7.5 2.9 1.3
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.9 1.9 0.8
16 Gary Payton II GS 6.2 2.8 1.6
17 Steven Adams HOU 6.1 6.7 0.9
18 Quinten Post GS 6.0 3.1 1.2
19 Jock Landale HOU 5.0 2.9 0.8
20 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.6 1.6 2.0
21 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.4 1.2 1.2
22 Kevon Looney GS 3.6 3.6 1.0
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.4 2.2 0.6
24 Jeff Green HOU 3.3 1.4 0.7
25 Gui Santos GS 3.2 2.0 1.0
26 Pat Spencer GS 2.7 0.7 0.8
27 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.4 1.8 0.7
28 Nate Williams HOU 2.3 0.8 0.4
29 Braxton Key GS 2.2 1.0 0.3
30 Kevin Knox II GS 2.2 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.