NBA games

HOU @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
106–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU26312326106
GS28223227109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home GS
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 42 31 10 5
Fred VanVleet S 40 25 2 6
Amen Thompson S 31 17 9 2
Dillon Brooks S 36 11 6 0
Jalen Green S 25 8 3 1
Jabari Smith Jr. 22 6 2 3
Steven Adams 26 5 7 0
Tari Eason 17 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 40 27 5 6
Brandin Podziemski S 40 26 5 5
Stephen Curry S 39 17 3 3
Buddy Hield S 30 15 4 3
Quinten Post 20 13 4 3
Draymond Green S 31 6 8 2
Moses Moody 12 3 1 1
Gary Payton II 16 2 3 4
Gui Santos 1 0 0 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 9-foot two point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
10%
3 Jalen Green HOU
10%
4 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
7 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
10 Quinten Post GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
44%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.3 5.5 6.1
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.9 10.5 4.8
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 21.1 4.1 4.9
4 Jalen Green HOU 16.1 4.6 3.8
5 Amen Thompson HOU 13.9 7.0 4.8
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.6 4.7 3.6
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.5 3.3 1.7
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.1 8.5 1.3
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 11.8 2.8 4.6
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS 9.6 3.9 1.8
11 Tari Eason HOU 9.5 5.5 1.4
12 Draymond Green GS 8.6 5.0 4.5
13 Buddy Hield GS 8.2 2.6 1.1
14 Moses Moody GS 7.6 3.0 1.3
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.9 2.0 0.8
16 Gary Payton II GS 6.7 2.8 1.3
17 Steven Adams HOU 5.8 7.2 0.9
18 Quinten Post GS 5.6 2.8 1.1
19 Jock Landale HOU 4.9 3.0 0.8
20 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.7 1.7 2.0
21 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.4 1.3 1.2
22 Kevon Looney GS 4.0 3.9 1.2
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.4 1.5 0.7
24 Pat Spencer GS 2.7 0.7 0.8
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.5 1.8 0.4
26 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.4 1.8 0.6
27 Nate Williams HOU 2.4 0.9 0.3
28 Gui Santos GS 2.4 1.9 0.8
29 Braxton Key GS 2.2 1.0 0.3
30 Kevin Knox II GS 2.2 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.