NBA games

HOU @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
93–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU2227222293
GS18282335104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home GS
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 41 17 4 3
Alperen Sengun S 33 15 11 4
Dillon Brooks S 28 13 6 1
Jabari Smith Jr. 26 12 5 0
Amen Thompson S 37 11 7 4
Jalen Green S 39 9 6 5
Tari Eason 19 8 6 0
Steven Adams 18 8 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 41 36 7 9
Buddy Hield 29 17 2 2
Gary Payton II 21 16 3 1
Brandin Podziemski S 33 10 4 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 17 7 1 2
Moses Moody 23 7 3 2
Draymond Green S 34 7 8 4
Kevon Looney 14 2 5 0
Quinten Post S 27 2 12 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandin Podziemski · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Brandin Podziemski makes 10-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Jalen Green HOU
12%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
12%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
6 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
7 Stephen Curry GS
9%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
8%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
41%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.1 4.9 6.1
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.0 10.1 4.8
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 21.4 4.2 4.9
4 Jalen Green HOU 18.6 4.3 3.8
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 15.9 5.3 4.0
6 Amen Thompson HOU 13.7 6.9 4.7
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.2 3.1 1.7
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.0 8.1 1.3
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 10.8 2.7 4.7
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.4 4.0 1.9
11 Tari Eason HOU 10.1 5.9 1.5
12 Draymond Green GS 8.9 5.4 4.6
13 Moses Moody GS 8.5 3.0 1.4
14 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.7 2.3 1.1
15 Buddy Hield GS 7.0 2.6 1.0
16 Gary Payton II GS 6.1 2.6 1.3
17 Quinten Post GS 5.8 2.1 1.0
18 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.7 2.0 2.3
19 Steven Adams HOU 5.7 7.3 0.9
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.4 1.7 1.5
21 Jock Landale HOU 4.9 3.0 0.8
22 Jeff Green HOU 4.2 1.9 0.9
23 Kevon Looney GS 3.9 3.6 1.2
24 Pat Spencer GS 3.6 1.1 1.1
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.3 2.2 0.7
26 Gui Santos GS 3.3 2.3 1.1
27 Nate Williams HOU 3.2 1.3 0.6
28 Braxton Key GS 3.1 1.4 0.5
29 Kevin Knox II GS 3.0 1.5 0.6
30 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.5 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.