NBA games

GS @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
94–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS1828252394
HOU28322722109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home HOU
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 37 20 5 9
Quinten Post 25 12 2 1
Moses Moody S 24 12 2 1
Pat Spencer 12 11 1 1
Jonathan Kuminga 26 11 3 2
Draymond Green S 31 8 5 1
Buddy Hield 16 5 4 1
Kevon Looney 13 5 4 3
Jimmy Butler III S 8 3 2 0
Gui Santos 11 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 35 38 4 6
Alperen Sengun S 37 17 16 7
Dillon Brooks S 25 16 3 1
Tari Eason 24 14 6 1
Amen Thompson S 23 11 1 3
Fred VanVleet S 42 7 6 2
Jabari Smith Jr. 24 5 5 0
Steven Adams 17 1 3 0
Jeff Green 2 0 1 0
Cam Whitmore 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Amen Thompson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Amen Thompson makes 2-foot layup (Jalen Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
20%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
4 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
5 Jalen Green HOU
10%
6 Jimmy Butler III GS
9%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Moses Moody GS
7%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
45%
Jumper
5%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 27.6 5.6 5.9
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 23.2 4.4 5.4
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.8 9.9 4.9
4 Jalen Green HOU 16.7 4.6 3.7
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 16.6 5.6 4.1
6 Amen Thompson HOU 14.5 7.6 4.8
7 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.2 2.2 5.0
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.9 2.8 1.7
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.2 8.3 1.3
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS 9.5 3.3 1.5
11 Draymond Green GS 9.2 5.7 5.4
12 Tari Eason HOU 8.9 5.6 1.6
13 Moses Moody GS 8.3 3.0 1.4
14 Gary Payton II GS 7.5 2.9 1.4
15 Buddy Hield GS 7.2 2.5 0.9
16 Reed Sheppard HOU 6.5 1.9 2.7
17 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.3 1.8 0.8
18 Steven Adams HOU 5.8 7.5 1.0
19 Quinten Post GS 5.5 2.2 1.0
20 Jock Landale HOU 5.1 3.0 0.9
21 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.8 0.9 1.0
22 Kevon Looney GS 3.7 3.4 1.0
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.5 1.5 0.7
24 Gui Santos GS 3.1 2.4 1.2
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.5 1.8 0.7
26 Braxton Key GS 2.4 0.8 0.3
27 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.3 1.6 0.4
28 Nate Williams HOU 2.3 0.7 0.4
29 Kevin Knox II GS 2.0 0.9 0.3
30 Pat Spencer GS 1.9 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.