NBA games

OKC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
117–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC34262829117
MEM31282630115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MEM
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 38 5 6
Jalen Williams S 38 23 4 5
Chet Holmgren S 29 11 2 1
Isaiah Joe 14 11 1 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 11 12 3
Aaron Wiggins 15 9 2 0
Alex Caruso 26 6 3 5
Cason Wallace 21 4 1 1
Luguentz Dort S 28 4 2 0
Jaylin Williams 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 37 30 11 4
Santi Aldama S 40 23 9 3
Desmond Bane S 38 23 5 5
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 12 4 2
Vince Williams Jr. 18 11 4 3
Zach Edey S 33 8 8 1
John Konchar 16 4 6 2
Luke Kennard 18 4 3 3
Jay Huff 6 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scotty Pippen Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
6 Zach Edey MEM
11%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
9%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Jaylin Williams OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
15%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.0 4.8 6.7
2 Jalen Williams OKC 24.1 5.2 4.9
3 Desmond Bane MEM 22.4 6.5 4.6
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.1 5.0 2.4
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.8 7.3 2.1
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 14.1 4.0 2.0
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.9 3.4 4.1
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.9 2.8 2.1
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.3 8.1 3.0
10 Santi Aldama MEM 10.3 4.6 2.1
11 Zach Edey MEM 10.1 10.3 1.8
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.0 4.0 1.6
13 Cason Wallace OKC 9.5 3.1 2.6
14 Alex Caruso OKC 8.0 3.9 2.2
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.0 4.4 1.5
16 Ajay Mitchell OKC 7.8 1.9 1.7
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.7 4.1 1.8
18 Luke Kennard MEM 5.7 2.9 1.7
19 Marvin Bagley III MEM 4.2 2.7 0.6
20 John Konchar MEM 4.0 2.8 0.9
21 Jay Huff MEM 3.8 1.7 0.4
22 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 3.8 2.1 1.3
23 Dillon Jones OKC 3.7 2.7 0.9
24 GG Jackson MEM 3.4 2.2 0.6
25 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.1 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.