NBA games

OKC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
114–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC29223627114
MEM40371813108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MEM
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 40 31 4 8
Jalen Williams S 37 26 6 5
Chet Holmgren S 32 24 8 0
Isaiah Joe 15 10 1 1
Alex Caruso 23 10 6 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 21 5 5 4
Cason Wallace 24 5 5 3
Luguentz Dort S 35 2 6 0
Ajay Mitchell 2 1 1 0
Aaron Wiggins 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 38 28 5 5
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 38 22 7 2
Ja Morant S 16 15 1 5
Santi Aldama 31 14 6 1
Desmond Bane S 37 10 8 4
Zach Edey S 30 9 7 2
Luke Kennard 33 5 5 3
John Konchar 17 5 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Edey · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Zach Edey makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
15%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
7 Zach Edey MEM
10%
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
23%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.2 5.1 6.8
2 Ja Morant MEM 24.8 4.4 6.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 24.3 5.0 4.8
4 Desmond Bane MEM 23.0 6.2 4.8
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 17.9 5.0 2.3
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.7 7.6 2.2
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 14.9 4.0 2.1
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.7 3.2 3.8
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.3 3.1 2.0
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.6 4.0 1.7
11 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.4 8.8 3.1
12 Santi Aldama MEM 10.1 4.6 2.1
13 Zach Edey MEM 10.0 10.4 1.6
14 Cason Wallace OKC 9.6 3.0 2.7
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.2 4.5 1.6
16 Ajay Mitchell OKC 8.1 2.7 1.5
17 Alex Caruso OKC 8.0 3.9 2.4
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.7 4.5 2.2
19 Luke Kennard MEM 4.9 2.5 1.7
20 Marvin Bagley III MEM 4.7 3.0 0.6
21 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 3.9 2.2 1.4
22 Jay Huff MEM 3.9 1.8 0.4
23 Dillon Jones OKC 3.7 2.8 1.0
24 GG Jackson MEM 3.7 2.3 0.6
25 John Konchar MEM 3.6 2.8 0.9
26 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.2 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.