NBA games

MEM @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
99–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM1735272099
OKC32382028118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home OKC
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 26 6 0
Ja Morant S 40 23 2 6
Desmond Bane S 37 19 12 4
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 31 13 4 1
Santi Aldama 31 10 5 0
Zach Edey S 26 4 7 3
Luke Kennard 18 4 3 2
Marvin Bagley III 11 0 1 0
John Konchar 10 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 27 8 5
Jalen Williams S 35 24 6 5
Chet Holmgren S 33 20 11 0
Alex Caruso 22 13 4 3
Aaron Wiggins 7 8 0 0
Luguentz Dort S 33 8 9 0
Isaiah Joe 17 7 4 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 27 6 10 3
Cason Wallace 24 5 2 3
Jaylin Williams 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:14 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
15%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
7 Zach Edey MEM
9%
8 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
37%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.0 4.8 6.9
2 Ja Morant MEM 25.3 4.7 6.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.7 4.8 5.1
4 Desmond Bane MEM 22.7 5.1 4.6
5 Aaron Wiggins OKC 18.3 4.5 2.9
6 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 17.5 5.8 2.3
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.3 7.0 2.5
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.0 2.9 3.9
9 Santi Aldama MEM 11.8 5.1 2.6
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.6 8.7 3.5
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.4 3.1 2.1
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.8 3.8 1.9
13 Cason Wallace OKC 10.3 3.1 3.0
14 Zach Edey MEM 10.0 9.7 1.5
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 9.0 5.9 3.3
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.9 4.6 1.9
17 Ajay Mitchell OKC 8.9 2.9 1.9
18 Alex Caruso OKC 8.4 4.0 2.7
19 Luke Kennard MEM 5.5 2.7 1.6
20 Jay Huff MEM 4.8 2.2 0.5
21 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 4.8 2.5 1.6
22 Dillon Jones OKC 4.7 3.1 1.2
23 Marvin Bagley III MEM 4.6 3.0 0.6
24 GG Jackson MEM 4.2 2.5 0.8
25 John Konchar MEM 4.1 3.3 1.0
26 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.1 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.