NBA games

GS @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
95–85
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS1829222695
HOU2113262585

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home HOU
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 40 31 6 3
Jimmy Butler III S 42 25 7 6
Brandin Podziemski S 35 14 8 5
Gary Payton II 16 7 3 1
Moses Moody S 28 7 2 1
Gui Santos 7 5 1 0
Draymond Green S 37 4 6 3
Buddy Hield 15 2 1 0
Quinten Post 12 0 1 1
Kevon Looney 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 36 26 9 1
Jabari Smith Jr. 25 11 6 0
Dillon Brooks S 34 11 3 2
Fred VanVleet S 40 10 1 7
Amen Thompson S 33 8 9 6
Jalen Green S 31 7 8 2
Steven Adams 20 6 12 1
Tari Eason 21 6 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Amen Thompson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Amen Thompson makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
14%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
4 Jalen Green HOU
11%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
7 Moses Moody GS
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Stephen Curry GS
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
36%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 26.1 5.5 6.1
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.3 4.2 5.6
3 Jalen Green HOU 19.0 4.6 3.7
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 18.7 9.4 4.6
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 18.6 5.7 4.3
6 Amen Thompson HOU 15.2 7.3 5.2
7 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.7 2.4 4.2
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.7 2.6 1.5
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.1 7.3 1.3
10 Draymond Green GS 10.1 5.6 5.5
11 Jonathan Kuminga GS 9.9 3.7 1.6
12 Moses Moody GS 9.6 3.1 1.4
13 Tari Eason HOU 9.2 5.5 1.4
14 Buddy Hield GS 7.9 2.8 1.0
15 Gary Payton II GS 7.2 3.0 1.3
16 Reed Sheppard HOU 7.1 2.0 2.7
17 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.5 1.9 0.8
18 Jock Landale HOU 5.3 3.2 0.9
19 Quinten Post GS 5.0 2.1 1.0
20 Steven Adams HOU 4.8 6.8 0.8
21 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.0 1.0 1.0
22 Jeff Green HOU 3.7 1.6 0.7
23 Kevon Looney GS 3.6 3.8 0.9
24 Gui Santos GS 2.8 2.4 1.3
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.6 1.8 0.7
26 Braxton Key GS 2.5 1.0 0.3
27 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.4 1.7 0.4
28 Nate Williams HOU 2.4 0.8 0.4
29 Kevin Knox II GS 2.1 1.0 0.3
30 Pat Spencer GS 2.0 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.