NBA games

ORL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
86–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL1831181986
BOS26223025103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home BOS
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 42 36 11 4
Franz Wagner S 36 23 3 5
Jonathan Isaac 18 7 2 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 6 4 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 4 13 0
Cole Anthony 10 4 0 3
Anthony Black 14 3 4 0
Caleb Houstan 13 3 2 1
Gary Harris 14 0 1 0
Cory Joseph S 26 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 36 30 4 2
Payton Pritchard 25 19 0 3
Jayson Tatum S 40 17 14 4
Jaylen Brown S 30 16 5 2
Jrue Holiday S 33 9 3 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 26 5 6 2
Al Horford 25 5 5 3
Luke Kornet 11 2 1 0
Torrey Craig 1 0 0 0
Sam Hauser 9 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Layup (2 pts) · 10:36 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
8%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
7%
6 Payton Pritchard BOS
6%
7 Luke Kornet BOS
6%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
5%
9 Al Horford BOS
5%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
35%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.2 8.5 5.3
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.8 7.6 6.2
3 Franz Wagner ORL 22.8 6.3 4.7
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.0 6.1 2.7
5 Jaylen Brown BOS 16.6 4.2 3.4
6 Derrick White BOS 15.8 5.1 6.3
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.6 4.2 3.8
8 Anthony Black ORL 11.5 4.2 3.1
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.2 3.5 3.8
10 Al Horford BOS 11.2 7.1 2.6
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.2 5.8 1.4
12 Luke Kornet BOS 9.1 6.6 1.3
13 Sam Hauser BOS 8.9 3.1 1.1
14 Cole Anthony ORL 7.9 2.9 2.8
15 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 7.4 2.5 1.4
16 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.7 2.7 1.1
17 Cory Joseph ORL 5.5 2.4 1.9
18 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.5 2.4 1.1
19 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.3 2.1 1.0
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.1 4.4 1.3
21 Jett Howard ORL 3.7 1.0 0.6
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.6 4.0 0.8
23 Gary Harris ORL 3.0 0.9 0.4
24 Neemias Queta BOS 2.9 2.7 0.7
25 JD Davison BOS 2.2 0.7 0.8
26 Torrey Craig BOS 2.0 2.6 0.6
27 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.4 1.1 0.3
28 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.0 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.