NBA games

MIN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
117–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN21383523117
LAL2820301795

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAL
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 33 25 9 2
Naz Reid 31 23 5 2
Anthony Edwards S 35 22 8 9
Julius Randle S 35 16 5 5
Donte DiVincenzo 25 9 5 4
Mike Conley S 22 9 3 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 20 7 1 3
Rudy Gobert S 24 2 6 1
Jaylen Clark 3 2 0 0
Luka Garza 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 37 8 1
LeBron James S 36 19 5 3
Austin Reaves S 37 16 3 3
Rui Hachimura S 30 9 5 2
Dalton Knecht 3 5 3 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 33 3 3 2
Gabe Vincent 25 3 0 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 14 2 4 2
Jaxson Hayes S 8 1 3 0
Alex Len 3 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
8%
4 LeBron James LAL
7%
5 Julius Randle MIN
7%
6 Jaxson Hayes LAL
6%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
6%
8 Austin Reaves LAL
5%
9 Shake Milton LAL
5%
10 Mike Conley MIN
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
21%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 28.6 6.6 6.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.3 4.9 4.8
3 LeBron James LAL 23.4 5.6 6.6
4 Austin Reaves LAL 22.7 4.3 4.7
5 Julius Randle MIN 19.8 7.0 5.2
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 16.6 12.0 1.7
7 Naz Reid MIN 11.9 4.6 2.3
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.8 3.1 3.0
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.5 3.6 3.5
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.3 3.4 1.1
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.9 4.3 1.3
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.1 3.1 1.6
13 Mike Conley MIN 7.8 2.6 4.3
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.7 1.4 0.9
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.1 4.2 0.6
16 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.8 1.5 0.4
17 Markieff Morris LAL 3.8 1.3 1.3
18 Jordan Goodwin LAL 3.6 2.9 1.1
19 Shake Milton LAL 3.4 1.4 0.8
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.1 4.5 0.6
21 Bronny James LAL 3.1 0.9 1.0
22 Josh Minott MIN 2.7 0.9 0.5
23 Luka Garza MIN 2.5 0.7 0.4
24 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.3 1.3 0.4
25 Alex Len LAL 2.2 2.5 0.6
26 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.9 0.8 0.4
27 Leonard Miller MIN 1.7 0.9 0.3
28 Joe Ingles MIN 1.7 0.7 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.