NBA games

DET @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
112–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET27283621112
NY27302640123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home NY
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 40 25 6 0
Cade Cunningham S 39 21 6 12
Malik Beasley 35 20 4 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 28 19 2 1
Ausar Thompson S 23 10 6 1
Dennis Schroder 26 8 0 3
Jalen Duren S 25 7 6 3
Isaiah Stewart 19 2 5 1
Ronald Holland II 6 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 40 34 2 8
OG Anunoby S 44 23 7 0
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 23 11 5
Cameron Payne 15 14 0 1
Josh Hart S 30 13 7 6
Mikal Bridges S 29 8 2 2
Mitchell Robinson 18 6 6 0
Landry Shamet 10 2 0 0
Miles McBride 15 0 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
8%
2 OG Anunoby NY
8%
3 Jalen Duren DET
7%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
7%
5 Jalen Brunson NY
7%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
7 Precious Achiuwa NY
6%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
6%
9 Mitchell Robinson NY
5%
10 Ariel Hukporti NY
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
15%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 29.6 6.1 8.0
2 Jalen Brunson NY 25.7 3.4 6.2
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.8 11.9 3.8
4 OG Anunoby NY 24.0 4.9 3.1
5 Mikal Bridges NY 19.8 3.4 5.5
6 Malik Beasley DET 14.9 2.3 1.6
7 Jalen Duren DET 14.1 10.0 3.2
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 13.7 2.3 1.7
9 Josh Hart NY 13.5 8.4 6.4
10 Tobias Harris DET 12.5 4.6 1.9
11 Ausar Thompson DET 12.1 6.0 2.1
12 Dennis Schroder DET 12.1 2.8 4.8
13 Miles McBride NY 11.7 2.9 3.7
14 Landry Shamet NY 9.9 2.3 1.1
15 Marcus Sasser DET 8.1 1.5 2.2
16 Precious Achiuwa NY 7.7 5.3 0.9
17 Cameron Payne NY 7.2 2.0 3.2
18 Ronald Holland II DET 6.2 2.6 1.1
19 Delon Wright NY 5.9 1.7 2.2
20 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.8 4.8 1.3
21 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.9 6.7 0.8
22 P.J. Tucker NY 4.6 2.4 0.6
23 Tyler Kolek NY 3.7 1.3 4.2
24 Simone Fontecchio DET 3.5 1.5 0.4
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.4 2.7 0.8
26 Lindy Waters III DET 3.2 1.0 0.6
27 Paul Reed DET 2.9 2.8 0.6
28 Ron Harper Jr. DET 1.9 1.8 0.5
29 Bobi Klintman DET 1.7 0.6 0.4
30 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.