NBA games

LAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
110–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
LAC3518222312110
DEN2722232614112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DEN
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 43 32 6 11
Kawhi Leonard S 41 22 6 2
Ivica Zubac S 39 21 13 2
Norman Powell S 37 12 3 4
Kris Dunn S 31 10 3 1
Nicolas Batum 24 9 2 1
Derrick Jones Jr. 24 4 4 0
Ben Simmons 13 0 2 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 12 0 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 46 29 9 12
Aaron Gordon S 46 25 8 1
Jamal Murray S 48 21 9 7
Russell Westbrook 34 15 8 3
Christian Braun S 45 11 3 1
Peyton Watson 14 6 2 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 26 3 4 0
Jalen Pickett 5 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
14%
2 James Harden LAC
13%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
6 Christian Braun DEN
10%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
8 Norman Powell LAC
8%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
26%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.5 11.0 10.3
2 James Harden LAC 25.4 5.4 8.9
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.0 6.7 4.0
4 Jamal Murray DEN 22.6 4.7 5.7
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 19.8 12.3 3.6
6 Christian Braun DEN 18.7 5.7 3.5
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.6 4.1 4.3
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.5 6.8 2.5
9 Norman Powell LAC 16.5 2.6 2.2
10 Russell Westbrook DEN 14.5 4.1 5.5
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 9.4 2.8 2.9
12 Peyton Watson DEN 9.2 4.3 1.1
13 Kris Dunn LAC 8.5 2.9 1.7
14 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.4 3.0 1.1
15 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.9 2.4 2.7
16 Amir Coffey LAC 5.3 1.4 0.8
17 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.7 5.9 1.2
18 Julian Strawther DEN 4.3 1.2 0.7
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.6 1.9 0.5
20 Dario Saric DEN 3.2 2.4 1.2
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.2 1.4 0.5
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.9 1.4 0.5
23 Patty Mills LAC 2.8 0.5 0.4
24 Ben Simmons LAC 2.6 3.2 1.7
25 Drew Eubanks LAC 2.2 1.9 0.4
26 Vlatko Cancar DEN 1.7 1.9 0.7
27 Kobe Brown LAC 1.5 0.8 0.4
28 Jordan Miller LAC 1.4 0.8 0.4
29 Cam Christie LAC 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.