NBA games

MEM @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
80–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM2016271780
OKC32364419131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home OKC
8% 92%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marvin Bagley III 16 17 5 0
Ja Morant S 26 17 3 4
Desmond Bane S 27 9 2 0
Jay Huff 12 8 2 0
Santi Aldama 19 5 4 3
Luke Kennard 12 5 3 0
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 4 3 2
Lamar Stevens 12 4 4 1
Zach Edey S 20 4 9 1
Vince Williams Jr. 19 3 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Wiggins 26 21 4 2
Jalen Williams S 26 20 5 6
Chet Holmgren S 21 19 10 2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 23 15 3 5
Isaiah Hartenstein S 21 14 8 5
Luguentz Dort S 22 12 3 2
Jaylin Williams 19 9 5 3
Isaiah Joe 20 6 1 1
Kenrich Williams 16 6 8 1
Ajay Mitchell 14 5 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 1-foot two point shot (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
10%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
8%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
7%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
7%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
7%
7 Zach Edey MEM
7%
8 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
6%
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC
6%
10 Dillon Jones OKC
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
58%
Jumper
21%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 27.9 4.7 7.2
2 Ja Morant MEM 27.3 5.0 6.5
3 Desmond Bane MEM 23.6 5.4 5.2
4 Jalen Williams OKC 22.6 4.9 4.9
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.8 5.9 2.3
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 15.8 4.3 2.6
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.1 6.4 2.0
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.9 3.2 3.8
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 12.5 3.1 2.1
10 Santi Aldama MEM 12.4 5.2 2.8
11 Zach Edey MEM 10.6 11.0 1.6
12 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.2 8.5 2.8
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.7 3.2 1.4
14 Cason Wallace OKC 9.4 2.7 2.4
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.2 3.9 1.6
16 Ajay Mitchell OKC 8.0 2.8 1.5
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.6 5.2 2.8
18 Alex Caruso OKC 7.6 3.3 2.0
19 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 5.7 2.8 1.6
20 Luke Kennard MEM 5.3 2.5 1.8
21 Jay Huff MEM 5.2 2.1 0.6
22 GG Jackson MEM 4.9 2.8 0.8
23 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.7 1.8 0.7
24 John Konchar MEM 4.0 3.2 0.9
25 Marvin Bagley III MEM 3.8 2.7 0.6
26 Dillon Jones OKC 3.3 2.4 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.