NBA games

MIL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
98–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2518332298
IND33342624117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home IND
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 38 36 12 1
AJ Green 27 15 3 1
Gary Trent Jr. 27 14 2 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 29 12 5 5
Brook Lopez S 21 9 4 0
Ryan Rollins S 19 5 2 3
Bobby Portis 25 4 8 0
Pat Connaughton 1 3 0 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 1 0 0 0
Jericho Sims 10 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 33 25 7 2
Myles Turner S 31 19 5 2
Andrew Nembhard S 29 17 4 5
Bennedict Mathurin 25 13 5 1
T.J. McConnell 15 11 2 5
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 10 7 12
Aaron Nesmith S 27 7 6 0
Thomas Bryant 12 6 1 0
Obi Toppin 15 6 1 1
Jarace Walker 17 3 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
8%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
4 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
8%
5 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
6 Myles Turner IND
8%
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL
7%
8 Tyrese Haliburton IND
6%
9 Obi Toppin IND
6%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
16%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.8 13.1 8.0
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.6 3.9 10.4
3 Pascal Siakam IND 17.0 5.8 3.1
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 16.8 4.8 5.0
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.5 5.6 2.3
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 16.4 4.0 2.4
7 Bobby Portis MIL 15.5 9.6 2.4
8 Myles Turner IND 15.4 6.6 1.5
9 Brook Lopez MIL 14.5 5.0 2.0
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.0 4.2 1.2
11 Ryan Rollins MIL 12.1 3.1 3.5
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.6 2.2 1.3
13 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.8 3.9 4.4
14 Obi Toppin IND 9.8 4.0 1.9
15 Jarace Walker IND 9.7 4.4 2.1
16 Taurean Prince MIL 8.8 2.8 1.5
17 T.J. McConnell IND 7.8 3.2 4.2
18 AJ Green MIL 7.6 2.9 1.4
19 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.8 2.5 1.4
20 Thomas Bryant IND 4.9 2.9 0.5
21 Jericho Sims MIL 4.1 5.4 1.0
22 Tony Bradley IND 3.9 3.4 0.4
23 Ben Sheppard IND 3.4 2.3 1.0
24 Johnny Furphy IND 3.2 2.1 0.8
25 James Johnson IND 2.3 1.3 0.7
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.1 1.3 0.5
27 Chris Livingston MIL 1.6 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.