NBA games

MIA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
100–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA24302521100
CLE31312534121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CLE
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 39 24 9 3
Tyler Herro S 37 21 3 2
Davion Mitchell 34 18 4 9
Andrew Wiggins S 38 14 6 2
Duncan Robinson 15 8 3 0
Haywood Highsmith 31 7 6 2
Alec Burks S 15 6 2 2
Kel'el Ware S 20 2 3 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 1 0 0 0
Pelle Larsson 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 33 30 5 4
Ty Jerome 26 28 5 3
Darius Garland S 31 27 3 5
Jarrett Allen S 30 12 11 1
Evan Mobley S 33 9 7 1
Max Strus S 21 9 1 1
Sam Merrill 24 6 1 4
Isaac Okoro 13 0 2 1
Javonte Green 1 0 1 0
Jaylon Tyson 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
7%
3 Darius Garland CLE
7%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
5 Evan Mobley CLE
6%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
6%
7 Ty Jerome CLE
6%
8 Jarrett Allen CLE
6%
9 De'Andre Hunter CLE
6%
10 Kel'el Ware MIA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
46%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 27.4 5.1 5.7
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.0 9.2 4.7
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.9 5.0 6.1
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 21.2 4.8 4.3
5 Darius Garland CLE 19.7 3.8 7.0
6 Evan Mobley CLE 18.5 9.4 3.8
7 Ty Jerome CLE 15.4 2.2 3.7
8 Davion Mitchell MIA 13.9 3.4 6.4
9 Nikola Jovic MIA 12.7 3.8 3.3
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.7 3.9 1.6
11 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.8 7.8 1.6
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.9 9.2 1.2
13 Kyle Anderson MIA 9.2 4.8 2.8
14 Max Strus CLE 9.2 3.6 3.0
15 Alec Burks MIA 8.6 2.9 1.5
16 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.2 2.0 1.5
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.8 4.5 1.7
18 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.0 2.9 0.9
19 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.5 2.8 1.8
20 Sam Merrill CLE 6.5 2.3 1.8
21 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.0 2.4 1.7
22 Chuma Okeke CLE 4.7 3.7 1.1
23 Terry Rozier MIA 4.5 2.3 1.3
24 Dean Wade CLE 4.5 1.8 0.8
25 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.4 1.6 1.1
26 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.5 1.4 0.7
27 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.9 1.5 0.5
28 Kevin Love MIA 2.7 2.5 0.4
29 Javonte Green CLE 1.8 1.7 0.4
30 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.8 3.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.