NBA games

DAL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
106–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL24252928106
MEM39273024120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MEM
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 37 40 9 2
Klay Thompson S 32 18 2 3
Brandon Williams 22 16 3 7
Naji Marshall S 34 13 4 5
Max Christie 21 11 1 0
Daniel Gafford 18 5 3 1
Dante Exum 13 3 2 0
Caleb Martin 11 0 0 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 4 0 0 0
Dereck Lively II S 20 0 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 36 24 7 4
Ja Morant S 33 22 7 9
Desmond Bane S 33 22 5 9
Zach Edey S 32 15 11 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 30 13 2 2
Santi Aldama 29 11 4 3
Marvin Bagley III 16 6 5 0
John Konchar 24 5 8 2
GG Jackson 2 2 1 0
Jay Huff 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 22-foot three point shot (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
12%
2 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
4 Zach Edey MEM
8%
5 Anthony Davis DAL
8%
6 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
8%
7 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
8 Marvin Bagley III MEM
7%
9 Naji Marshall DAL
7%
10 Lamar Stevens MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
28%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 28.3 4.4 6.7
2 Desmond Bane MEM 22.9 5.0 5.1
3 Anthony Davis DAL 22.6 10.5 4.3
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.0 5.7 2.4
5 P.J. Washington DAL 17.9 6.1 2.7
6 Brandon Williams DAL 14.8 3.2 3.8
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.8 3.8 4.8
8 Naji Marshall DAL 13.4 4.3 4.1
9 Santi Aldama MEM 12.5 5.3 3.0
10 Klay Thompson DAL 11.5 2.9 1.5
11 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 11.5 3.8 6.0
12 Max Christie DAL 10.8 3.6 1.6
13 Zach Edey MEM 10.7 10.6 1.7
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 9.4 2.1 1.7
15 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.3 7.2 1.4
16 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.6 6.4 1.6
17 Dante Exum DAL 7.4 1.9 2.2
18 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.4 3.4 1.8
19 Caleb Martin DAL 6.3 3.1 1.7
20 Luke Kennard MEM 6.2 2.8 2.1
21 Jay Huff MEM 5.2 2.1 0.5
22 GG Jackson MEM 4.5 2.5 0.7
23 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.2 1.7 0.5
24 John Konchar MEM 3.8 2.7 1.0
25 Marvin Bagley III MEM 3.2 2.4 0.4
26 Dwight Powell DAL 3.1 2.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.