NBA games

MIA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
123–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIA3329242017123
ATL242924298114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ATL
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 44 30 8 7
Andrew Wiggins S 43 20 8 8
Bam Adebayo S 44 17 11 5
Davion Mitchell 40 16 3 5
Haywood Highsmith 40 12 10 3
Kel'el Ware S 22 12 8 0
Duncan Robinson 10 6 1 1
Alec Burks S 11 5 4 2
Kyle Anderson 12 5 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 44 29 5 11
Onyeka Okongwu S 50 28 12 1
Georges Niang 26 20 4 4
Caris LeVert 37 15 7 6
Dyson Daniels S 44 11 10 4
Terance Mann 25 5 3 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 16 3 0 0
Mouhamed Gueye S 15 3 2 1
Vit Krejci 8 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 12-foot jumper (Alec Burks assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
12%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
9 Trae Young ATL
7%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
30%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 27.9 4.7 5.9
2 Trae Young ATL 25.5 2.8 10.9
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.9 8.6 4.4
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 21.7 4.6 4.0
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.9 10.1 4.3
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.0 9.7 2.6
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.9 7.9 4.9
8 Caris LeVert ATL 14.6 4.3 2.9
9 Davion Mitchell MIA 14.0 3.3 6.7
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.8 3.5 1.4
11 Nikola Jovic MIA 13.0 3.8 3.4
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.2 9.9 1.4
13 Kyle Anderson MIA 9.3 4.9 3.1
14 Alec Burks MIA 9.2 2.7 1.6
15 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.0 2.1 1.6
16 Georges Niang ATL 8.7 2.1 1.3
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.4 4.1 1.8
18 Terance Mann ATL 8.3 2.9 1.7
19 Vit Krejci ATL 7.2 2.6 1.7
20 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.1 3.1 2.0
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.7 6.1 1.1
22 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.2 2.4 1.8
23 Terry Rozier MIA 5.0 2.4 1.4
24 Dominick Barlow ATL 4.3 2.7 0.7
25 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.2 1.8 0.5
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.6 1.8 0.6
27 Kevin Love MIA 2.9 2.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.