NBA games

DAL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
120–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL27442821120
SAC29193325106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home SAC
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 35 27 9 1
Klay Thompson S 33 23 5 2
P.J. Washington S 37 17 9 4
Brandon Williams 18 17 0 5
Dante Exum 19 11 3 6
Daniel Gafford 21 9 4 1
Naji Marshall S 29 9 4 3
Dereck Lively II S 18 5 1 4
Max Christie 13 2 1 1
Caleb Martin 12 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 43 33 7 2
Zach LaVine S 44 20 3 9
Domantas Sabonis S 37 11 13 5
Devin Carter 22 10 4 2
Keegan Murray S 36 9 6 2
Keon Ellis S 18 9 1 1
Trey Lyles 18 5 6 1
Jonas Valanciunas 10 4 1 0
Terence Davis 2 3 2 0
Isaac Jones 2 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dereck Lively II · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Dereck Lively II makes 3-foot layup (Klay Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
10%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
8%
4 Naji Marshall DAL
8%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
6 Zach LaVine SAC
7%
7 Brandon Williams DAL
7%
8 Dereck Lively II DAL
7%
9 Daniel Gafford DAL
7%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
26%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.8 4.1 6.1
2 Zach LaVine SAC 23.2 3.3 4.0
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.8 12.9 6.0
4 Anthony Davis DAL 19.3 9.3 4.0
5 P.J. Washington DAL 18.3 6.1 2.3
6 Naji Marshall DAL 15.8 4.5 3.8
7 Brandon Williams DAL 15.1 3.3 3.8
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.8 5.9 1.5
9 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.6 3.8 6.8
10 Max Christie DAL 10.4 3.3 1.7
11 Klay Thompson DAL 9.1 2.2 1.3
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.0 6.7 1.4
13 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.8 1.8 1.6
14 Trey Lyles SAC 8.6 4.3 1.4
15 Keon Ellis SAC 8.1 3.4 1.7
16 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.9 6.5 1.3
17 Dante Exum DAL 6.8 1.6 1.8
18 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 6.1 5.4 1.1
19 Caleb Martin DAL 5.9 2.6 1.6
20 Doug McDermott SAC 3.9 1.0 0.7
21 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.5 1.5 1.7
22 Devin Carter SAC 3.4 1.5 0.9
23 Dwight Powell DAL 2.9 1.8 0.8
24 Jae Crowder SAC 2.7 1.5 0.5
25 Isaac Jones SAC 2.6 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.