NBA games

MIA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
109–90
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA39321721109
CHI2819271690

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHI
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 37 38 5 4
Andrew Wiggins S 35 20 9 3
Davion Mitchell 33 15 2 9
Bam Adebayo S 36 15 12 3
Duncan Robinson 17 8 2 1
Kel'el Ware S 22 6 9 3
Haywood Highsmith 18 5 1 1
Alec Burks S 17 2 3 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 1 0 0 0
Keshad Johnson 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 40 25 10 4
Coby White S 42 17 2 5
Nikola Vucevic S 38 16 12 1
Kevin Huerter S 32 10 1 1
Matas Buzelis S 35 9 6 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 16 9 1 0
Zach Collins 5 2 0 1
Dalen Terry 13 2 4 0
Julian Phillips 1 0 0 0
Jalen Smith 4 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
8%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
7%
6 Coby White CHI
7%
7 Kevin Huerter CHI
7%
8 Tyler Herro MIA
6%
9 Kel'el Ware MIA
6%
10 Julian Phillips CHI
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
34%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 26.4 4.9 5.5
2 Coby White CHI 23.1 4.6 5.2
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.4 7.8 4.3
4 Josh Giddey CHI 21.9 10.7 10.1
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 21.7 4.6 4.1
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.3 9.7 4.2
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 15.2 5.9 2.1
8 Kevin Huerter CHI 13.6 3.2 3.9
9 Davion Mitchell MIA 13.3 3.3 6.5
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 12.9 3.8 3.4
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.0 9.7 1.2
12 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.8 2.0 1.7
13 Alec Burks MIA 9.6 2.5 1.4
14 Kyle Anderson MIA 9.6 4.7 2.9
15 Patrick Williams CHI 9.6 3.0 2.0
16 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 9.3 1.9 1.7
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.9 4.1 1.8
18 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.1 3.4 2.2
19 Zach Collins CHI 6.8 5.4 1.8
20 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.3 2.5 1.8
21 Jalen Smith CHI 6.1 5.4 1.3
22 Dalen Terry CHI 6.0 2.6 1.8
23 Terry Rozier MIA 5.4 2.6 1.7
24 Jevon Carter CHI 5.2 1.6 1.2
25 Julian Phillips CHI 5.0 2.2 0.8
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.1 1.5 0.5
27 Kevin Love MIA 3.0 2.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.