NBA games

MEM @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
116–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM25303625116
GS31362727121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home GS
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 39 30 6 4
Ja Morant S 35 22 3 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 39 18 6 4
Santi Aldama 27 14 8 2
Zach Edey S 33 14 17 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 34 9 5 5
John Konchar 13 6 3 0
Luke Kennard 17 3 1 1
Vince Williams Jr. 3 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 40 38 7 6
Stephen Curry S 39 37 8 4
Gary Payton II 20 12 2 1
Quinten Post 22 11 5 2
Moses Moody S 33 9 3 1
Draymond Green S 31 4 6 10
Gui Santos 6 3 3 0
Brandin Podziemski S 28 3 4 3
Buddy Hield 12 2 0 1
Kevon Looney 10 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Ja Morant makes 19-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
22%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
12%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
7%
4 Marvin Bagley III MEM
7%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
6%
6 Zach Edey MEM
6%
7 Lamar Stevens MEM
6%
8 Brandin Podziemski GS
6%
9 Draymond Green GS
6%
10 Moses Moody GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
14%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 29.1 4.6 6.7
2 Stephen Curry GS 25.5 5.1 6.2
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 21.4 4.5 5.5
4 Desmond Bane MEM 21.0 5.0 4.8
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.2 5.4 1.9
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 18.7 5.8 4.3
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.6 3.6 4.9
8 Santi Aldama MEM 11.2 4.5 2.8
9 Draymond Green GS 10.7 5.8 5.3
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.4 4.0 1.8
11 Zach Edey MEM 9.8 10.2 1.3
12 Moses Moody GS 9.5 3.2 1.6
13 Buddy Hield GS 9.0 3.1 1.4
14 Gary Payton II GS 7.8 3.4 1.6
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.1 3.4 2.0
16 Quinten Post GS 6.1 2.5 1.1
17 Luke Kennard MEM 5.9 2.6 2.2
18 Jay Huff MEM 5.8 2.3 0.6
19 GG Jackson MEM 5.0 2.6 0.8
20 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.7 2.0 0.7
21 Kevon Looney GS 4.4 4.6 1.2
22 John Konchar MEM 3.8 3.1 0.9
23 Marvin Bagley III MEM 3.7 2.6 0.6
24 Gui Santos GS 3.6 2.4 1.4
25 Braxton Key GS 2.8 1.1 0.4
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.7 1.9 0.5
27 Kevin Knox II GS 2.3 1.2 0.4
28 Pat Spencer GS 2.3 0.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.