NBA games

ATL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
95–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL1730262295
ORL32291841120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home ORL
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 40 28 2 6
Georges Niang 23 15 3 0
Mouhamed Gueye S 26 12 4 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 33 11 9 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 29 7 3 0
Caris LeVert 25 7 6 3
Dyson Daniels S 35 7 12 7
Dominick Barlow 12 6 3 0
Terance Mann 10 2 0 1
Vit Krejci 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Anthony 20 26 3 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 26 19 7 2
Paolo Banchero S 33 17 9 7
Anthony Black 28 16 4 4
Franz Wagner S 34 13 13 3
Cory Joseph S 18 9 0 2
Jonathan Isaac 18 6 8 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 26 5 5 2
Tristan da Silva 4 4 1 0
Gary Harris 13 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
4 Trae Young ATL
7%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
7%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
8 Jonathan Isaac ORL
6%
9 Dominick Barlow ATL
6%
10 Anthony Black ORL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
71%
Jumper
12%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.7 8.7 5.6
2 Trae Young ATL 25.4 2.8 8.7
3 Franz Wagner ORL 24.5 6.0 5.2
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.6 10.0 4.2
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.3 7.2 5.0
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.1 10.0 2.3
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.6 3.3 1.6
8 Caris LeVert ATL 13.1 3.9 2.4
9 Anthony Black ORL 13.1 4.4 3.0
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.0 6.1 1.6
11 Cole Anthony ORL 9.8 3.3 3.1
12 Terance Mann ATL 9.2 3.0 1.7
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.2 2.7 2.0
14 Caleb Houstan ORL 8.5 2.8 1.6
15 Vit Krejci ATL 7.9 3.3 1.9
16 Georges Niang ATL 7.8 1.6 1.2
17 Cory Joseph ORL 6.0 2.7 2.3
18 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.9 2.4 1.4
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.8 5.7 0.9
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.3 5.3 1.7
21 Jett Howard ORL 5.3 1.4 1.0
22 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.0 2.1 0.6
23 Gary Harris ORL 5.0 1.6 1.1
24 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.5 3.9 1.0
25 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.9 2.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.