NBA games

IND @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
91–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND2226202391
OKC25223422103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home OKC
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 33 24 13 3
Pascal Siakam S 37 16 4 2
T.J. McConnell 28 16 6 3
Andrew Nembhard S 37 15 5 6
Tyrese Haliburton S 7 9 0 0
Myles Turner S 24 6 4 1
Aaron Nesmith S 30 3 6 1
Tony Bradley 5 2 1 0
Ben Sheppard 16 0 4 0
Obi Toppin 21 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 40 29 5 12
Jalen Williams S 38 20 4 4
Chet Holmgren S 31 18 8 0
Alex Caruso 32 10 3 0
Cason Wallace 26 10 2 0
Luguentz Dort S 35 9 7 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 18 7 9 4
Dillon Jones 1 0 0 0
Ousmane Dieng 1 0 0 0
Kenrich Williams 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 14-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
14%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
8 Myles Turner IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
30%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.2 5.3 6.3
2 Jalen Williams OKC 24.7 5.6 4.3
3 Pascal Siakam IND 22.2 6.9 3.6
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.7 5.5 7.8
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.9 7.7 1.3
6 Myles Turner IND 12.4 4.3 1.7
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.1 3.1 3.7
8 Obi Toppin IND 10.7 4.8 1.3
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.2 4.6 1.2
10 Alex Caruso OKC 9.5 3.0 1.8
11 T.J. McConnell IND 9.4 3.2 3.9
12 Bennedict Mathurin IND 9.4 4.0 1.1
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.6 3.7 1.3
14 Cason Wallace OKC 6.5 2.9 1.4
15 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 6.0 5.7 1.3
16 Quenton Jackson IND 5.5 1.7 1.9
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.3 4.8 0.7
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.1 2.0 1.0
19 Ben Sheppard IND 4.4 2.1 0.7
20 Isaiah Joe OKC 4.4 1.6 0.5
21 Dillon Jones OKC 3.9 1.8 0.8
22 Ajay Mitchell OKC 3.8 1.2 0.8
23 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.8 2.1 1.3
24 Thomas Bryant IND 3.7 1.4 0.5
25 Kenrich Williams OKC 2.8 1.7 0.5
26 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.6 0.9 0.5
27 Jarace Walker IND 2.5 1.0 0.6
28 Tony Bradley IND 2.4 1.9 0.5
29 Johnny Furphy IND 2.3 1.1 0.5
30 James Johnson IND 2.3 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.