NBA games

OKC @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
91–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC2517183191
IND28362618108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home IND
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 31 21 4 2
Jalen Williams S 27 16 3 1
Isaiah Joe 15 11 1 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 16 10 4 1
Jaylin Williams 12 7 5 1
Aaron Wiggins 18 5 2 1
Chet Holmgren S 24 4 6 0
Dillon Jones 7 4 2 1
Ousmane Dieng 3 3 0 0
Kenrich Williams 18 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Obi Toppin 23 20 6 0
Andrew Nembhard S 31 17 0 4
Pascal Siakam S 32 16 13 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 23 14 1 5
T.J. McConnell 24 12 9 6
Aaron Nesmith S 25 10 2 3
Ben Sheppard 21 7 5 0
Thomas Bryant 7 4 0 0
Myles Turner S 26 3 4 1
Tony Bradley 6 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
12%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
7 Myles Turner IND
8%
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
36%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.5 4.8 5.9
2 Jalen Williams OKC 24.7 6.0 4.5
3 Pascal Siakam IND 24.0 6.3 3.7
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.2 6.0 8.2
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.7 7.5 1.4
6 Myles Turner IND 13.4 4.3 1.8
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.6 3.2 3.5
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.1 5.2 1.1
9 Alex Caruso OKC 10.0 3.0 1.7
10 Obi Toppin IND 9.3 4.3 1.4
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.9 2.6 3.8
12 Bennedict Mathurin IND 8.9 3.6 1.2
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.7 3.5 1.3
14 Cason Wallace OKC 6.3 2.8 1.9
15 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 5.6 5.7 1.3
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.4 4.8 0.8
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.8 2.0 0.9
18 Ben Sheppard IND 3.7 1.5 0.8
19 Isaiah Joe OKC 3.4 1.2 0.3
20 Thomas Bryant IND 3.2 1.2 0.5
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 2.9 1.6 0.5
22 Ajay Mitchell OKC 2.9 0.7 0.4
23 Dillon Jones OKC 2.8 1.6 0.6
24 Tony Bradley IND 2.7 2.9 0.5
25 Jaylin Williams OKC 2.5 1.4 0.8
26 Johnny Furphy IND 2.3 1.5 0.6
27 Jarace Walker IND 2.3 1.0 0.6
28 Ousmane Dieng OKC 1.4 0.5 0.3
29 James Johnson IND 1.1 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.